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Indonesia Retail Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Indonesia is home to the fourth largest population in the world and possesses one of the fastestgrowing economies in the world. Total household spending in the world's largest Muslim country will growannually by 9.4 % on average over our forecast period. As a result, retailers increasingly perceive thecountry as a lucrative investment destination. Nevertheless, the number of foreign retailers remainssomewhat limited with local Indonesian brands playing an important role in the competitive landscape.Indonesia will experience a slight slump in domestic consumption this quarter owing to higher fuel prices -the result of subsidy cuts implemented by the government earlier this year - as well as a depreciating currency.

Weakened demand from major trading partners such as China will also hamper economic growthresulting in lower consumer demand in the retail sector. This trend will be exacerbated by the decision toraise taxes on around 870 imported non-food consumer goods from 2.5% to 7.5% in 2014, and further to10% in mid-June 2015. However, in June the government also exempted most goods from a luxury-goodstax of up to 75%, aiming to boost consumption, revive faltering economic growth and reduce foreignpurchases. The tax no longer applies to categories such as electrical appliances, sports equipment andbranded goods, but still applies on expensive cars, yachts, aircrafts, guns, alcoholic beverages and largerproperties. Nevertheless, we remain confident in Indonesia's long-term growth prospects and believe thatimproving economic conditions and falling oil prices will see stronger retail spending in 2015-2019.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Retail Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 13
Industry Forecast 15
Headline Retail Forecast 15
Table: Total Household Spending (Indonesia 2012-2019) 17
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Indonesia 2012-2019) 18
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Indonesia 2012-2019) 18
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Indonesia 2012-2019) 21
Retail Sectors Forecast 22
Food and Drink 23
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Indonesia 2012-2019) 23
Clothing and Footwear 25
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Indonesia 2012-2019) 25
Household Goods 26
Table: Household Goods Spending (Indonesia 2012-2019) 26
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 28
Table: Household Income Data (Indonesia 2012-2019) 29
Table: Labour Market Data (Indonesia 2012-2019) 31
Demographic Forecast 32
Table: Total Population (Indonesia 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Babies (Indonesia 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Young Children (Indonesia 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Children (Indonesia 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Indonesia 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: Young People (Indonesia 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Indonesia 2012-2019) 37
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Indonesia 2012-2019) 37
Table: Population: Young Adults (Indonesia 2012-2019) 38
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Indonesia 2012-2019) 38
Table: Population: Urban (Indonesia 2012-2019) 38
Macroeconomic Forecasts 39
Economic Activity 39
Industry Risk Reward Index 42
Asia Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Asia - Retail Risk/Reward Index 42
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index 43
Rewards 43
Risks 44
Market Overview 46
Competitive Landscape 49
Department Store Groups 49
METRO 50
Parkson Holdings 50
MGR 50
Matahari Putra Prima 50
Carrefour Indonesia 51
Fashion 51
HandM/PT Hindo 51
Household Goods 52
IKEA/HERO 52
ACE Hardware 52
Glossary 53
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

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