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China Infrastructure Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 166 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's construction sector is undergoing a structural slowdown as the country shifts from aninvestment driven model, which focused on fiscal stimulus measures targeting the infrastructure sector.Opportunities remain substantial, however, given the country's large infrastructure deficit and ongoingreforms to spur private investment and improve regional connectivity through its One Belt One Roadinitiative.

Key Trends And Developments

-China's construction sector will grow by an annual average of 4.7% between 2015 and 2019, a markedslowdown relative to the 9.3% registered 2010-2014. We have long held the view the sector will see aninevitable slowdown as Beijing steers the economy towards more consumption-led growth, as opposed toan investment driven one.

-We believe the slowdown in China's construction sector will continue to largely be led by the real estatesegment and with FAI into the sector seeing a consistent slowdown in growth rates over the past twoyears.

-We believe efforts by the government to use monetary and fiscal stimulus measures targeted at theinfrastructure sector to prop up economic growth will not be sustainable. Despite also looking to attractprivate sector investment, we expect such efforts to have a limited impact on the sector's growth

-Despite the slowdown, China will remain an attractive market, with the government's Belt and Roadinitiative, providing a boost to the transport segment. We also see opportunities in the railway sector andexpect continued investment in the sector during 2015.

-We believe reforms are also a long-term positive for the sector and significant progress on reforms in therailway segment will bode well for the segment.

-Such reforms will take years to gain traction due to three key factors: the time taken for privateparticipation reforms to mature and be fully implemented, the general unattractiveness of infrastructureassets in China due to their elevated levels of leverage and the economic viability of the infrastructureprojects on offer to the private sector.

Table Of Contents

China Infrastructure Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Infrastructure SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2013-2018) 10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2019-2024) 12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 22
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2013-2018) 22
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2019-2024) 23
Table: China - Key Guidelines For Railway Development Fund 28
Table: Key Projects: Transport Infrastructure 34
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview 56
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (China 2013-2018) 56
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (China 2019-2024) 57
Table: Key Projects: Energy and Utilities 77
Residential/Non Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 103
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (China 2013-2018) 103
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (China 2019-2024) 103
Table: Key Projects: Construction and Social Infrastructure 109
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 118
China - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 118
China's Risk/Reward Index 118
Rewards 118
Risks 118
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 119
Market Overview 126
Competitive Landscape 126
Table: EQS Industry Data 126
Company Profile 129
Sinohydro 129
China Communications Construction 133
Shanghai Construction Group 136
China Railway Group 139
China Railway Construction Corporation 143
Global Industry Overview 148
Table: Infrastructure Key Themes 2015 148
Table: Asia: Key Reforms 153
Project Risk Index: Robust Financing Establishes Outperformer Status 154
Table: Project Risk Index - Top 10 Markets 155
Table: Project Risk Index - Financing Risk, SSA Top 5 156
Table: Project Risk Index - Construction Risk, Asia-Pacific Top 5 157
Table: Project Risk Index - Operation Risk, Developed Markets Top 5 158
Methodology 159
Industry Forecast Methodology 159
Sector-Specific Methodology 160
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 164
Sector-Specific Methodology 165
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 165
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 166

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