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Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our generally positive outlook for the Indonesian telecommunications market in our latest Q4 2016 report update. Current and ongoing investments will help improve the national broadband infrastructure. Nevertheless, the geographical barriers to Indonesia's archipelagic nature and high development costs will pose a downside risk to the government's plan to develop the national fixed infrastructure. By engaging in 4G network and infrastructure sharing arrangements, Indonesia's mobile networks operators will benefit from efficiencies that will not only boost LTE rollout speeds, but also help the operators reduce costs. The proliferation of 4G mobile connections could have a dampening effect on demand for fixed broadband services. However, we envisage downside risks to 4G service uptake, as the new minimum local content requirements on LTE-enabled devices could have the effect of increasing production costs and, consequently, the price of smartphones.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments
- Total subscriptions in the mobile sector grew to 337.5mn at the end of Q1 2016, for a penetration of 130.5%. Amid market saturation, mobile operators will aim to reverse downward trending ARPUs by migrating subscribers on to post-paid plans and higher-value services.
- We estimate strong growth in the 3G/4G mobile sector as heavy investments by operators continue to push technological uptake forward.
- Fixed broadband subscribers will grow by 18.3% in 2016 to reach 9.00mn, and this number is expected to rise to 15.76mn in 2020. However, penetration will still remain low under 6.0% as costs and topological factors limit expansion speed.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2020) 14
Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416 18
Indonesia Risk/Reward Index 20
Market Overview 22
Market Drivers and Trends 22
Mobile 23
Wireline Voice and Broadband 30
Table: Telkom Key Submarine Cable Developments 34
Pay TV 34
Regulatory Development 36
Industry Risks 36
Main Development: Ministry Threatens to Revoke Licenses 37
Additional Development 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Table: Key Operator Revenues (USDmn) 38
Table: Spectrum Holdings For Top 5 Cellular Operators, 2015 38
Table: Mobile Market Overiew 38
Table: Indosat 39
Table: Telkomsel 42
Table: XL Axiata 44
Company Profile 48
Indosat 48
Telkom 53
Telkomsel 59
XL Axiata 63
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

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