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  5. > Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 128 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Flagging production and rising domestic demand will see the Philippines' dependence on crudeoil and refined fuels imports deepen over the next 10 years. The construction of the country's first LNGimport terminal in 2015 will see the Philippines become an importer of LNG, and allow domestic gasconsumption to grow beyond local production.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

- We forecast a decline in the Philippines' oil and gas reserves, as sustained weakness in global oil pricesslowdown exploration, which in turn limits the chances of making new discoveries.
- Crude oil production will fluctuate around the 25,000b/d-28,000b/d range throughout our forecast periodto 2024. We note significant downside risk to our forecast particularly from 2019, as these are based onprojects where final investment decisions have not been made.

Table Of Contents

Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2013-2018) 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2019-2024) 10
Table: Philippines: Basins And Exploration Results To Date 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Philippines Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2013-2018) 17
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2019-2024) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 20
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2013-2018) 20
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2019-2024) 20
Refining 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2013-2018) 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2019-2024) 23
Refined Fuels Consumption 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2013-2018) 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2019-2024) 26
Gas Consumption 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018) 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2019-2024) 30
Trade - Oil 33
Crude Oil Trade 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018) 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024) 33
Refined Oil Trade 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024) 36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Philippines 2013-2018) 39
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Philippines 2019-2024) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018) 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024) 41
Supply Sources 43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 44
Industry Risk Reward Index 44
Table: Asia: Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook 45
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 45
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook 48
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 48
Philippines - Risk/Reward Index 50
Philippines Upstream Index - Overview 50
Philippines Upstream Index - Rewards 50
Philippines Upstream Index - Risks 50
Philippines Downstream Index - Overview 51
Market Overview 52
Philippines Energy Market Overview 52
Political Regime 52
Regulatory Regime 52
Licensing Rounds 54
Table: PECR-5: Available Licences 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: Oil Refineries 56
Oil Storage Facilities 56
Service Stations 56
LNG Terminals 57
Table: LNG Terminals In The Philippines 57
Gas Pipelines 57
Competitive Landscape 59
Competitive Landscape Summary 59
Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector 60
Company Profile 61
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC) 61
Petron 66
Shell Philippines 70
Chevron Philippines 75
BCP Energy/Nido Petroleum 79
Other Summaries 83
Regional Overview 88
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview 88
Global Industry Overview 93
Global Energy Market Overview 93
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates and NGLs Production ('000b/d) 93
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 96
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 97
Appendix 99
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts 99
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) 99
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) 100
Asia - Regional Appendix 101
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 101
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 102
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 103
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 104
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 105
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 106
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 107
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 108
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 109
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 110
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 111
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 112
Philippines - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts 113
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Philippines 2013-2018) 113
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Philippines 2019-2024) 113
Philippines - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts 114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018) 114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024) 115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018) 116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024) 118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Philippines 2013-2018) 119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Philippines 2019-2024) 120
Glossary 121
Table: Glossary Of Terms 121
Methodology 123
Industry Forecast Methodology 123
Source 125
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 125
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 127
Table: Weighting 128

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