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Serbia Retail Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates



BMI View: Real GDP growth will slow in Serbia as the new government resumes an ambitious austerityagenda, which will act as a constraint on domestic demand growth in terms of private consumption andretail sales. Although modest, Serbia's recovery will remain on track, driven mainly by the export sector,underpinning our forecast for GDP growth of 1.7% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017.Key Views And Developments

- Unemployment, which was already elevated at 19% as of Q116, will continue rising, which will weigh onthe recovery in private consumption in Serbia.

- We see few drivers of private consumption growth in Serbia against the backdrop of renewed reductionin public sector wages and pensions, and rising inflation, which will erode consumer purchasing power.As such, while private consumption expanded by 0.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q116, this pace isunsustainable, and we forecast a full-year expansion of just 0.2% for the full year, before expandingfurther by 1.0% in 2017.

- The total population will decrease by an average of 0.4% annually over the forecast period - one of thefastest rates in the region.

Table Of Contents

Serbia Retail Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Serbia 2013-2020) 12
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Serbia 2013-2020) 18
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Serbia 2013-2020) 18
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Serbia 2013-2020) 19
Retail Sub-Sector Forecast 21
Food, Drink and Tobacco 22
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Serbia 2013-2020) 22
Clothing and Footwear 23
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Serbia 2013-2020) 24
Household Goods 24
Table: Household Goods Spending (Serbia, 2013-2020) 25
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (Serbia 2013-2020) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (Serbia 2013-2020) 31
Demographic Forecast 32
Table: Total Population (Serbia 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Children (Serbia 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Children (Serbia 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Serbia 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Young People (Serbia 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Serbia 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Young Adults (Serbia 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Serbia 2013-2020) 37
Industry Risk/Reward Index 38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416 38
Serbia Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Market Overview 42
Competitive Landscape 50
Clothing and Footwear 50
Table: Selected Clothing and Footwear Retailers 50
Household Goods 51
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 51
Electronics 51
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 51
Department Stores 52
Table: Selected Department Store Retailers 52
E-Commerce 52
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers 52
Pharmacies 53
Table: Selected Pharmacies Retailers 53
Glossary 54
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

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