1. Market Research
  2. > Telecom
  3. > Mobile Services Market Trends
  4. > Poland Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

Poland Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views
The export-driven recovery we have anticipated in Poland is now in motion, and we are turning increasingly positive towards the country’s domestic demand outlook. We expect a robust recovery in domestic demand in 2014, as low inflation, solid wage growth and an improving labour market bolster household purchasing power. Poland’s external position remains relatively strong and we estimate the current account deficit arrived at just 1.5% of GDP in 2013. However, a large stock of foreign-owned government paper and ongoing private sector deleveraging represent the two major risks to our sanguine outlook.

We continue to expect the Civic Platform (PO)-led government to serve out its term. The government won a recent parliamentary vote of confidence, suggesting its parliamentary majority is safe for the time being. We also believe that the opposition will struggle to broaden its appeal despite the rising government unpopularity,
limiting its ability to challenge the ruling coalition.

Major Forecast Changes
Due to weaker than expected inflation and the growing potential for the ECB to embark on a quantitative easing programme, we now expect the first policy rate hikes to arrive in 2015 at the earliest, from our previous forecast of Q414. We expect the current account deficit to arrive at 1.8% of GDP in 2014, from a previous forecast of 1.6%.

Table Of Contents

Poland Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
Executive Summary 5
Core Views...5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings.. 7
Domestic Politics. 8
Confidence Vote Boosts Government's Strength8
Despite a wafer thin majority and low opinion poll ratings, we believe Prime Minister Donald Tusk's administration will survive until the
next parliamentary election in 2015.
Table: Poland Political Overview Table..8
Long-Term Political Outlook... 9
A Maturing Regional Power.9
We consider Poland's long-term political risk profile to be on an upward trajectory, reflecting the country's maturing political institutions
and greater confidence in the conduct of external affairs. Solid macroeconomic fundamentals underpin our expectation for improvement
over the long run. Nevertheless, Poland still faces significant challenges to political stability in its external relations and at home.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.. 13
SWOT Analysis... 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings.. 13
Economic Activity .. 14
Russia Trade Ban Should Not Affect Growth14
Russian bans on selected Polish exports are unlikely to materially impact growth, and while the economy slowed in Q214, supporting
our below consensus forecast for 2014, we do not believe economic activity is set for a sharp deceleration in H214.
Table: Ec onomic Act ivity14
Balance Of Payments .. 16
Trade Surplus To Fade..16
We believe Poland's trade account surplus is cyclical rather than structural in nature and expect the country to record a current account
deficit in 2014 and 2015.
Table: Current Account.16
Monetary Policy.. 17
Rates To Hold Despite Low Inflation....17
While inflation remains stubbornly low, we believe the Polish monetary authorities are more likely to keep rates on hold rather than cut,
with core inflation still stable and the recent central bank scandal likely to prompt a more hawkish stance.
Fiscal Policy... 18
Fiscal Consolidation Still On Track.18
Despite a slight widening in the budget deficit in 2013, the outlook for Poland's deficit in 2014 and 2015 is positive, and we expect to see
further narrowing to 3.5% and 3.2% respectively despite risks to revenue from lower than expected inflation and missed privatisation
targets.
Table: Monetary Policy..18
Table: Fiscal Policy19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Polish Economy To 2023 21
Long-Term Future Looks Bright.21
We forecast Polish real GDP growth to average 3.4% between 2014 and 2024, down slightly from 4.0% between 2001 and 2011.
Poland is well placed to avoid the pitfalls of the middle income trap and continue benefitting from large catch-up growth with the rich EU
economies.
Table: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts ...21
Chapter 4: Business Environment 25
SWOT Analysis... 25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 25
Business Environment Outlook. 26
Institutions 26
TABLE : BMI BUSINESS AND OPERA TIO N RI SK RA TINGS....26
TABLE : BMI LE GAL FRA MEWOR K RA TING....27
Infrastructure. 28
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY..28
TABLE : EMER GING EURO PE - ANNUAL FDI INFLO WS....29
TABLE : TRA DE AND INVE STMENT RA TINGS30
Market Orientation... 31
tABLE: Top Export Destinations 31
Operational Risk 32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors... 33
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare .. 33
Table: Pharmaceut ical Sales, Hist orical Data And Forecasts 34
Table: Private Healthc are Expend itu re Trends , Hist orical Data And Forecasts ... 35
Table: Governm ent Healthc are Expend itu re Trends , Hist orical Data And Forecasts ... 35
Table: Healthc are Expend itu re Trends , Hist orical Data And Forecasts 35
Telecommunications.... 37
Table: Telecoms Sect or - Mobile - Hist orical Data and Forecasts . 37
Table: Telecoms Sect or - Wireline - Hist orical Data and Forecasts .. 38
Table: Int ernet - Hist orical Data And Forecasts .39
Other Key Sectors... 41
Table: Oil and Gas Sect or Key Ind icators..41
Table: Defenc e and Secu rity Sect or Key Ind icators41
Table: Inf rast ructu re Sect or Key Ind icators..41
Table: Food and Drink Sect or Key Ind icators....42
Table: Aut os Sect or Key Ind icators..42
Table: Freight Key Ind icators42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 43
Global Outlook.... 43
US Revision Drags Down Forecast.43
Table: Global Assumpt ions 43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growt H, %..44
Table: BMI VER SUS BLOO MBER G CONSENSUS REAL GDP GRO WTH FORE CASTS, %.. 44
Table: Em erging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %.45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
The Multi-play services in Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2020

The Multi-play services in Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2020

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

"A second, but weaker, wave of growth in the number of fixed–mobile subscriptions is set to come from countries other than France, Portugal and Spain." Analysys Mason report on multi-play services in ...

The Communication services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

The Communication services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • July 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in the Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) region, including country views for China, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. It ...

The Communication services in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

The Communication services in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • July 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, including country views for Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates ...


ref:plp2014

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.