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Slovenia Retail Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Slovenia is on track to register a strong year for both its economy and the retail sector. Weexpect euro value of total household spending to expand by 2.3% this year, an acceleration from both of thepreceding years. Declining unemployment and rising wages in public and private sectors will ensure stablegrowth in household income, which will in turn boost non-essentials spending. On the other hand, thegovernment could face challenges in preserving medium-term growth, as it is expected to stabilise the risesin minimum wages and privatise the banks its owns.

Key Views and Developments

- Spar remains the only mass grocery retailer, which continues to expand its network: the firm plans toreach 100 stores this year (up from 97 in the end of 2015), as well as six new franchised stores.

- Mercator and Tuš, the largest Slovenian mass grocery retailers, are seeking ways to stay profitable in thesaturated market: the former continues to refurbish its existing network (with four stores revamped inQ116) and the latter has been proposed to be turned into a cooperative by public study, followingfinancial problems caused by unfettered expansion.

- Inditex and H&M, two of the three largest foreign clothing retail groups in Slovenia, are shiftingcompetitive efforts to e-commerce as both firms opened online stores in the country in the first half of2016 as a part of regional expansion.

- Budget deficit and public debt are both due to shrink this year. However, IMF has warned that bothfigures could rise in 2017 and later if the government carries on with the current policies - specifically, itsrefusal to privatise the banks it owns. Business sentiment increased by 0.7% m-o-m in June but remainsdown by 0.7% on y-o-y terms, according to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia.

- Despite a 1.4% decline in its dollar value, total household spending will expand by 2.3% in euro termsthis year, beating our inflation forecast of 1.0% and growing in real terms.

Table Of Contents

Slovenia Retail Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Slovenia 2013-2020) 16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Slovenia 2013-2020) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 18
Retail Sector Forecast 20
Food and Drink 21
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 22
Clothing And Footwear 23
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 23
Household Goods 23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 24
Personal Care and Effects 25
Table: Personal Care Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 25
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 27
Table: Household Income Data (Slovenia 2013-2020) 28
Table: Labour Market Data (Slovenia 2013-2020) 31
Demographic Forecast 32
Table: Total Population (Slovenia 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Babies (Slovenia 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Young Children (Slovenia 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Children (Slovenia 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Slovenia 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Young People (Slovenia 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Slovenia 2013-2020) 37
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Slovenia 2013-2020) 37
Table: Population: Young Adults (Slovenia 2013-2020) 37
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Slovenia 2013-2020) 38
Table: Population: Urban (Slovenia 2013-2020) 38
Industry Risk/Reward Index 39
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 39
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416 39
Slovenia Risk/Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Risks 41
Market Overview 43
Competitive Landscape 48
Clothing and Footwear 48
Table: Selected Clothing and Footwear Retailers 48
Household Goods 49
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 49
Electronics 49
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 49
Department Stores 50
Table: Selected Department Store Retailers 50
E-Commerce 50
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers 50
Pharmacies 51
Table: Selected Pharmacies 51
Glossary 52
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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