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  4. > South Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

South Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for South Africa's mobile market and the country's telecomssector. Subscription growth in the mobile market is driven by factors including operators' promotionalactivities, multiple SIM ownership and launch of advanced services. 3G and 4G services have strong uptakeas well as a positive impact on non-voice service revenues, with all four carriers launching LTE-Advancedtechnology offerings. Further market consolidation is expected, with Liquid Telecoms' attempt to acquirefixed-line network operator Neotel likely to be approved.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- The South African mobile subscriptions reached 90.17mn in Q116, up 8.6% y-o-y, with penetrationreaching 164%. Vodacom and Cell C encountered positive customer growth in the first quarter of 2016.However, MTN experienced a decline of 511,000 customers.

- The main source of future growth in the mobile market will be the development of 3G and 4G services,with the launch of LTE a clear signal that operators are preparing for intense competition based on thedelivery of data services. We currently expect the number of 3G and 4G customers to rise to 47.7mn bythe end of 2016, equivalent to 49.49% of the mobile subscriber base by the end of 2020. We forecastbroadband subscriptions to increase from 8.44mn in 2016 to 9.08mn in 2020, equivalent to a penetrationrate of 16.03%. Increasing competition and investment pose an upside risk to this forecast with morefocused contribution to the broadband market by open access players to result in a medium-term surge ofgrowth in the number of retail broadband subscriptions.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2020) 15
Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 20
South Africa Risk/Reward Index 21
Market Overview 23
Market Drivers and Trends 23
Mobile 23
Wireline Voice and Broadband 32
Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000) 33
Table: Telkom Internet Subscriptions ('000) 34
Regulatory Development 36
Table: National Broadband Policy Access Targets 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Table: Key Players 40
Source: Operator data 40
Table: Market Overview 2014-2015 40
Table: Vodacom 41
Table: MTN 42
Table: Cell C 44
Table: 8ta - Telkom South Africa 44
Table: Virgin Mobile 45
Company Profile 46
Cell C 46
MTN 50
Telkom 55
Vodacom 59
Demographic Forecast 63
Demographic Outlook 63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 64
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 64
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 65
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 65
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 66
Glossary 68
Table: Glossary Of Terms 68
Methodology 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Sources 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 72
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 74

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