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Russia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Russia's poultry and pork sectors will perform strongly as consumer demand is growing anddomestic production is looking to bridge the gap left by EU imports, which will not resume until the end of2017. Wheat will outperform the grains complex out to 2020 due to elevated farmgate prices in roubleterms and strong opportunities on the domestic and export markets, which will maintain productionincentives. The Russian dairy sector will benefit from growth momentum until 2018 due to the EU embargo.In particular, cheese production will see solid gains in a bid to gain market share. Afterwards, dairyproducers will face lower subsidies and lower prices, which will accelerate consolidation in the industry.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth in 2016/17: 1.6% y-o-y to 62.0mn tonnes. We maintain our 2016/17 wheatproduction forecast at 62.0mn tonnes, as the winter wheat harvest is in full swing. The wheat crop isshaping up to be a record high and we might revise upward our 2016/17 forecast in our Q117 report, onceboth winter and spring wheat harvests are complete.

Table Of Contents

Russia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Russia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Russia Grains Production and Consumption 16
Sugar Outlook 17
Table: Russia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Table: Russia Sugar Production and Consumption 19
Dairy Outlook 20
Latest Updates 20
Table: Russia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Russia - Risks To Dairy Outlook 21
Structural Trends 22
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption 25
Livestock Outlook 26
Latest Updates 26
Table: Russia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 27
Table: Russia - Risks To Livestock Outlook 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Russia Livestock Production and Consumption (2012-2020) 30
Commodities Forecast 31
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 31
Upstream Analysis 33
Europe Machinery Outlook 33
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 36
Europe GM Outlook 39
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 46
Downstream Analysis 52
Food 52
Latest Updates 52
Structural Trends 53
Table: Food Sales (Russia 2013-2020) 53
Regional Overview 55
Europe Regional Overview 55
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 61
Demographic Forecast 62
Demographic Outlook 62
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 63
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 63
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 64
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 64
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sector-Specific Methodology 68

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