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  5. > Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 46 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our long-held view in our Q3 2016 report update that Saudi Arabia willincreasingly be dependent on grains imports, as the country has decided to phase out domesticgrains production in a desperate bid to preserve the country's water supply. The government has notabandoned its strategy of self-sufficiency in poultry and has been ramping up incentives to expandproduction capacity. This strategy has paid off, as the three major producers in the sector have all startedheavy investment initiatives. We believe Saudi Arabia will find sufficient grains supply from the Black Searegion and the EU to supply its meat and food processing industry in the coming years. However, thecountry will remain highly vulnerable to volatile grains and feed prices. Recent spikes in feed prices haveturned us more cautious on margins for dairy and livestock producers in the country, especially those thatimport inputs from abroad. The national dairy sector is set to witness strong growth as the market remainsa heavy consumer of dairy products. Dairy production will also grow as foreign investors use Saudi Arabia,the world's fifth largest dairy importer, as a regional hub for manufacturing and distribution of halal dairybutters and cheeses.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -100% to 0 tonnes. Wheat production will be almost completelyphased out in the coming years and Saudi Arabia will become entirely dependent on imports for its grainneeds.

- Beef consumption growth to 2020: 3.52% average y-o-y to 227,000 tonnes. Beef consumption will notgrow as fast as poultry in the coming years, as beef meat remains more expensive than chicken. However,the expansion in GDP per capita and population will support a moderate increase in beef demand.

- Poultry consumption growth to 2020: 3.86% average y-o-y to 1.87mn tonnes. This growth will bedriven by poultry as the most preferred form of meat in tandem with rising prosperity and a growingnational appetite.

- Poultry production growth to 2020: 6.3% average y-o-y to 950,000 tonnes. This spectacular growthwill mainly come from the effects of three major poultry farms' (al-Watania, al-Fakieh and Almarai)capacity expansion, along with continuous government support.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD14.4bn in 2016, up 2.2% compared with the expected2015 level; forecast to increase by 6.0% on average per year between 2016 and 2020.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 1.0% y-o-y, down from 3.4% expected in 2015, projected to average 1.7% from2016 to 2020.

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 4.0% average, up from 2.2% expected in 2015, projected to average4.0% from 2016 to 2020.

Table Of Contents

Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Saudi Arabia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 14
Table: Grain Production and Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020) 17
Livestock Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Saudi Arabia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 20
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020) 22
Dairy Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: Saudi Arabia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020) 26
Commodities Price Analysis 27
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 27
Downstream Analysis 29
Food 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 30
Table: Food Sales (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) 31
Regional Overview 33
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 33
Competitive Landscape 39
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies 39
Demographic Forecast 40
Demographic Outlook 40
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 41
Table: Key Population Ratios (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 41
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 42
Table: Population By Age Group (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 42
Table: Population By Age Group % (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 43
Methodology 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sector-Specific Methodology 46

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