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Algeria Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates



BMI View:
Algeria will be unable to feed its growing levels of wheat and milk consumption as the countryremains a major importer of food products. However, the government's new emphasis on the improvementof food self-sufficiency is helping to revive the sectors. While higher government support is likely to bepositive for productivity and product quality in the medium term, Algeria will remain a key importer ofwheat and dairy products in the coming years. The country is increasingly expanding trading links withcountries such as Brazil and India, away from its traditional suppliers such as France, especially for dairyand beef products.

Key BMI Forecasts


- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 40.7% to 2.7mn tonnes. This growth rate is due to base effects,as production dropped by 41% in 2014/15. Wheat production will struggle to grow and reach new recordlevels in the coming years.

- Milk production growth to 2019/20: 13.3% to 4.1mn tonnes. Our projections are based on thegovernment's support for the sector and its plan to develop it by improving breeding methods as well asrestructuring and further privatising segments of the agriculture industry.

- Milk powder consumption growth to 2020: 6.3% to 200,000 tonnes. Algeria will remain one of thelargest importers of milk powder, due to an elevated consumption per capita.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD19.92bn in 2016, up 9.6% y-o-y (growth to average3.8% annually between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 1.9%, down from 2.3% in 2015; predicted to average 2.5% over 2016-2020).

- 2016 Consumer price inflation: 5.0%, same than in 2015; predicted to average 4.3% over 2016-2020).

Table Of Contents

Algeria Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Algeria - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Algeria - Risks To Grains Outlook 12
Structural Trends 13
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Algeria 2013-2020) 16
Dairy Outlook 17
Latest Updates 17
Table: Algeria - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Algeria 2013-2020) 22
Commodities Price Analysis 23
Commodities Forecasts 23
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 23
Upstream Analysis 25
Africa Machinery Outlook 25
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 25
Africa GM Outlook 31
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 38
Downstream Analysis 45
Food 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends 46
Table: Food Sales (Algeria 2013-2020) 47
Regional Overview 50
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 50
Demographic Forecast 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Algeria 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Algeria 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Algeria 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Algeria 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Algeria 1990-2025) 59
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sector-Specific Methodology 62

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