World Motorcycles Market (including Electric Bikes & Mopeds)

• Publication date: August 2009

Global demand to rise 7.6% annually through 2013 Global demand for motorcycles is forecast to rise 7.6 percent per year through 2013 to 114 million units, spurred by rising standards of living in poorer developing parts of the world, which are making motorcycles a more affordable alternative to walking, bicycling or using mass transit. Higher energy prices, along with a rebound in economic growth after a recessionary period that be...

Global demand to rise 7.6% annually through 2013

Global demand for motorcycles is forecast to rise 7.6 percent per year through 2013 to 114 million units, spurred by rising standards of living in poorer developing parts of the world, which are making motorcycles a more affordable alternative to walking, bicycling or using mass transit. Higher energy prices, along with a rebound in economic growth after a recessionary period that began in a number of nations in 2008, will also contribute to motorcycle market gains in both developing and developed areas. Product sales will expand at a slower pace in value terms, climbing 7.2 percent annually to $66.6 billion in 2013, because of an expected decline in sales-weighted prices. Some offsetting support will be provided by the introduction of new models equipped with sophisticated emissions control systems and increased sales of machines with more features, boosting motorcycle dollar demand.

Africa/Mideast, Asia/Pacific markets to grow the fastest

The strongest market advances through 2013 will be registered by the Africa/ Mideast region. This will be due to several factors, including the fastest population growth of any region in the world, the lowest median age and the lowest (but climbing) per capita GDP. Population increases and higher standards of living will also help stimulate motorcycle sales in the Asia/Pacific region, which will post the second strongest gains, followed by Eastern Europe (rising from a very small current market base) and Latin America. China alone will account for 55 percent of all additional product demand through 2013, solidifying its position as the biggest national market by far for motorcycles. Growth is also expected to be healthy in lowervolume markets such as Nigeria, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia. Product demand will expand at a more moderate rate in developed countries, where automobiles and other light vehicles are the primary form of personal transportation, and motorcycles are generally considered to be luxury goods used for recreational purposes. Nevertheless, high energy prices, city center congestion (especially in Western Europe) and personal income growth will provide some impetus to motorcycle sales advances in these areas.

Electric motorcyles to lead gains, ICE types to remain dominant

Electric motorcycles will register the strongest market growth of any major product type. Demand for batterypowered bicycles, scooters and other two-wheelers will be driven by their generally lower purchase prices, low cost of operation and lack of harmful emissions. However, ICE motorcycles will continue to account for two-thirds of all sales. ICEs are a proven, widely accepted motorcycle powerplant technology, and improvements continue to be made in engine designs. In addition, ICE motorcycles can travel further before needing to be refueled, and larger ICE models are more powerful than most currently available electric motorcycles. Light motorcycles -- which offer greater power and better performance than scooters, mopeds and motorbikes, but have lower price tags and are less expensive to operate than medium and heavy motorcycles -- will outperform other ICE product types and maintain their position as the largest single segment of the motorcycle market.

Study coverage

This new industry study, World Motorcycles, presents historical demand data (1998, 2003 and 2008) plus forecasts for 2013 and 2018 by motorcycle type, worldwide regional market as well as for 21 national markets. The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles 38 competitors in the global industry.

Global Motorcycle Industry

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION xi

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT 4

General 4
World Economic Overview 5
Recent Economic Performance 5
World Economic Outlook 8
World Demographic Overview 11
Population 11
Urban Population 14
Households 15
World Personal Income Trends 17
World Bicycle Market Trends 19
World Light Vehicle Overview 22
Production 22
Demand 25
Legal & Regulatory Issues 28
Restrictions on Motorcycle Use 28
Rider Safety 29
Exhaust Emissions 30
Pricing Patterns 32
Technological Trends 34

III. WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND 37

General 37
Two Market Models: Developed Versus Emerging 38
Historical Context: Japan in the 1950s 39
Forecast Model Inputs 42
Income Distribution 42
Age & Demographics 44
Climate 45
Safety 46
Other Factors 47
Model Fit & Implementation 49
Regional Overview 51
Demand 52
Motorcycles in Use 59
Production 61
International Trade 64
Demand by Type 66
Internal Combustion Engine 69
Scooters, Mopeds & Motorbikes 72
Light Motorcycles 73
Medium/Heavy Motorcycles 74
Electric 76
Bicycles & Mopeds 79
Scooters & Other 81

IV. NORTH AMERICA 83

North America 83
Motorcycle Supply & Demand 84
Motorcycle Outlook & Suppliers 86
United States 88
Canada 94
Mexico 100

V. WESTERN EUROPE 106

Western Europe 106
Motorcycle Supply & Demand 107
Motorcycle Outlook & Suppliers 110
Italy 113
France 119
Germany 125
Spain 131
United Kingdom 136
Other Western Europe 141

VI. ASIA/PACIFIC 147

Asia/Pacific 147
Motorcycle Supply & Demand 149
Motorcycle Outlook & Suppliers 151
China 154
India 162
Indonesia 168
Vietnam 174
Thailand 180
Taiwan 186
Japan 192
Philippines 200
Malaysia 205
South Korea 210
Other Asia/Pacific 216

VII. OTHER REGIONS 223

Latin America 223
Brazil 229
Argentina 235
Other Latin America 241
Eastern Europe 247
Africa/Mideast 253
Nigeria 259
Other Africa/Mideast 266

VIII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 273

General 273
Industry Composition 274
Market Share 276
Honda 276
Yamaha 277
Harley-Davidson 277
Suzuki 278
Kawasaki 278
Other Leading Suppliers 279
Competitive Strategies 279
Industry Globalization Trends 281
Research & New Product Development 283
Manufacturing 284
Marketing & Distribution 287
Cooperative Agreements 289
Mergers & Acquisitions 295
Company Profiles 298
Bajaj Auto Limited 299
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG 302
Benelli, see Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle
Big Dog Motorcycles LLC 304
Buell Motorcycle, see Harley-Davidson
China Jialing Industrial Company Limited 305
China Qingqi Group Company Limited 307
Chongqing Jianshe Motorcycle Company Limited 308
Chongqing Lifan Industry Group Company Limited 310
Chongqing Loncin Industry Group Company Limited 311
Dachangjiang Group Company Limited 312
Daelim Industrial Company Limited 313
Dafra da Amazonia Industria e Comercio de
Motocicletas Limitada 314
Ducati Motor Holding SpA 315
Eicher Motors Limited 316
Generic Motor Distribution, see Zhejiang Qianjiang
Motorcycle
Giant Manufacturing Company Limited 318
Guangzhou Haojin Group Company Limited 319
Guangzhou Motors Group Company Limited 320
Guangzhou Tianma Group Tianma Motorcycle
Company Limited 321
Harley-Davidson Incorporated 322
Hero Honda Motors, see Honda Motor
Honda Motor Company Limited 326
Hong Leong Industries Berhad 331
Jinan Qingqi Electric Vehicle, see China Qingqi Group
Jinan Qingqi Motorcycle Company Limited 333
Jincheng Corporation 334
Kawai Motor Industry Guangzhou, see Luoyang
Northern Enterprises Group
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Limited 336
KTM Power Sports AG 339
Kwang Yang Motor Company Limited 341
Luoyang Northern Enterprises Group Company Limited 343
MALAGUTI SpA 345
Mbk Industrie, see Yamaha Motor
MV Agusta Motor, see Harley-Davidson
Nanjing Jincheng Suzuki Motorcycle, see Jincheng
and Suzuki Motor
Peugeot SA 346
Piaggio & Company SpA 348
Polaris Industries Incorporated 351
S&T Motors Company Limited 353
Sanyang Industry Company Limited 354
Suzuki Motor Corporation 355
Triumph Motorcycles Limited 359
TVS Motor Company Limited 360
Wuyang-Honda Motors Guangzhou, see Guangzhou
Motors Group and Honda Motor
Yamaha Motor Company Limited 362
Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Company Limited 369
Zongshen Industrial Group Company Limited 371
Other Companies Mentioned in Study 373

LIST OF TABLES

SECTION I - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Summary Table 3

SECTION II - MARKET ENVIRONMENT

1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 11
2 World Population by Region 13
3 World Urban Population by Region 15
4 World Households by Region 17
5 World Per Capita GDP by Region 19
6 World Bicycle Demand by Region 21
7 World Light Vehicle Production by Region 25
8 World Light Vehicle Demand by Region 27
9 Sales-Weighted Motorcycle Manufacturer Pricing 34
SECTION III - WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND
1 World Motorcycle Unit Demand by Region 54
2 World Motorcycle Value Demand by Region 56
3 World Motorcycles in Use by Region 60
4 World Motorcycle Production by Region 63
5 World Motorcycle Net Exports by Region 65
6 World Motorcycle Demand by Engine Type 68
7 World Internal Combustion Engine Motorcycle Demand by Type & Region 71
8 World Electric Motorcycle Demand by Type & Region 78

SECTION IV - NORTH AMERICA

1 North America - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 85
2 North America - Motorcycle Demand by Type 88
3 United States - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 91
4 United States - Motorcycle Demand by Type 94
5 Canada - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 97
6 Canada - Motorcycle Demand by Type 100
7 Mexico - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 103
8 Mexico - Motorcycle Demand by Type 105

SECTION V - WESTERN EUROPE

1 Western Europe - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 109
2 Western Europe - Motorcycle Demand by Type 113
3 Italy - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 116
4 Italy - Motorcycle Demand by Type 119
5 France - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 122
6 France - Motorcycle Demand by Type 125
7 Germany - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 128
8 Germany - Motorcycle Demand by Type 130
9 Spain - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 133
10 Spain - Motorcycle Demand by Type 135
11 United Kingdom - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 138
12 United Kingdom - Motorcycle Demand by Type 140
13 Other Western Europe - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 143
14 Other Western Europe - Motorcycle Demand by Type 146

SECTION VI - ASIA/PACIFIC

1 Asia/Pacific - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 150
2 Asia/Pacific - Motorcycle Demand by Type 154
3 China - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 158
4 China - Motorcycle Demand by Type 162
5 India - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 165
6 India - Motorcycle Demand by Type 168
7 Indonesia - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 171
8 Indonesia - Motorcycle Demand by Type 174
9 Vietnam - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 177
10 Vietnam - Motorcycle Demand by Type 180
11 Thailand - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 183
12 Thailand - Motorcycle Demand by Type 186
13 Taiwan - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 189
14 Taiwan - Motorcycle Demand by Type 192
15 Japan - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 196
16 Japan - Motorcycle Demand by Type 199
17 Philippines - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 202
18 Philippines - Motorcycle Demand by Type 204
19 Malaysia - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 207
20 Malaysia - Motorcycle Demand by Type 210
21 South Korea - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 213
22 South Korea - Motorcycle Demand by Type 216
23 Other Asia/Pacific - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 219
24 Other Asia/Pacific - Motorcycle Demand by Type 222

SECTION VII - OTHER REGIONS

1 Latin America - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 226
2 Latin America - Motorcycle Demand by Type 229
3 Brazil - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 232
4 Brazil - Motorcycle Demand by Type 235
5 Argentina - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 238
6 Argentina - Motorcycle Demand by Type 241
7 Other Latin America - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 244
8 Other Latin America - Motorcycle Demand by Type 247
9 Eastern Europe - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 250
10 Eastern Europe - Motorcycle Demand by Type 253
11 Africa/Mideast - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 256
12 Africa/Mideast - Motorcycle Demand by Type 259
13 Nigeria - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 263
14 Nigeria - Motorcycle Demand by Type 266
15 Other Africa/Mideast - Motorcycle Supply & Demand 269
16 Other Africa/Mideast - Motorcycle Demand by Type 272

SECTION VIII - INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

1 Motorcycle Sales for Selected Manufacturers, 2008 275
2 Selected Cooperative Agreements 290
3 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 297

LIST OF CHARTS

SECTION II - MARKET ENVIRONMENT

1 Median Age of Population by Region 14

SECTION III - WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND

1 Motorcycle Versus Passenger Car Sales Trends in Japan,
1950 to 2000 40
2 Ratio of Motorcycle to Passenger Car Sales in Japan,
1950 to 2000 41
3 Relationship of Per Capita GDP to Relative Motorcycle Sales Dominance in Japan, 1950 to 1970 42
4 Relationship of Income Distribution to Per Capita GDP, 2008 43
5 Median Age of Population in Selected Countries, 2008 45
6 US Motorcyclist Accident Fatalities & Fatality Rate, 1998 to 2008 46
7 US Motorcyclist Traffic Fatalities by Age Group,
1998 & 2007 47
8 Comparison of Per Capita GDP & Motorcycle Dominance 49
9 Typical Motorcycle Market Transition Point - Selected
Countries, 2008 51
10 World Motorcycle Demand by Region, 2008 57
11 Additional Motorcycle Demand, 2013 Versus 2008 57
12 World Motorcycle Demand in Units - Projected 2008-2013 Annual Rate of Growth 58
13 World Motorcycles in Use by Region, 2008 61
14 World Motorcycle Production by Region, 2008 63
15 World Motorcycle Demand by Engine Type 69
16 World Internal Combustion Engine Motorcycle Demand by Type 72
17 World Electric Motorcycle Demand by Type 79

SECTION IV - NORTH AMERICA

1 North America - Motorcycle Demand by Country, 2008 86

SECTION V - WESTERN EUROPE

1 Western Europe - Motorcycle Demand by Country, 2008 110

SECTION VI - ASIA/PACIFIC

1 Asia/Pacific- Motorcycle Demand by Country, 2008 151

SECTION VIII - INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 World Motorcycle Market Share, 2008 276
2 Profitability Trends - Global Versus Regional Players, 1998 to 2008 280
3 Honda Motorcycle Business World Sales Distribution, 2008 282
4 World Motorcycle Industry Breakdown by Units, Revenues
& Profits, 2008 283
5 World Motorcycle Industry Minimum Efficient Scale Analysis, 2008 286