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RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2016-2026

  • October 2015
  • -
  • IDTechEx Ltd
  • -
  • 174 pages

IDTechEx Research has tracked the RFID market since 1999. This report provides detailed data and analysis built on years of extensive research including interviews with RFID adopters and solution providers in the various applicational RFID markets, giving an unprecedented level of insight into the total RFID industry and what is really happening. Predominately, our research is conducted with interviews with companies across the supply chain, many of whom we have sign non disclosure agreements with and allowed access to data which we aggregate to provide the totals.

IDTechEx find that in 2015, the total RFID market is worth $10.1 billion, up from $9.5 billion in 2014 and $8.8 billion in 2013. This includes tags, readers and software/services for RFID cards, labels, fobs and all other form factors, for both passive and active RFID. IDTechEx forecast that to rise to $13.2 billion in 2020.

In retail, RFID continues to be adopted for apparel tagging - that application alone will demand 4.6 billion RFID labels in 2016 - which still has some way to go with RFID penetrating about 15% of the total addressable market for apparel in 2016. RFID in the form of tickets used for transit will demand 800 million tags in 2016. The tagging of animals (such as pigs, sheep and pets) is substantial as it continues to be a legal requirement in many more territories, with 420 million tags being used for this sector in 2016. In total, IDTechEx expects that 8.9 billion tags will be sold in 2015 and 10.4 billion in 2016. Most of that growth is from passive UHF RFID (RAIN RFID) labels. However, in 2015 UHF (RAIN RFID) tag sales by value will only be 11% of the value of HF tag sales, mainly because HF tags where used for security (such as payments, access etc) have a higher price point versus the cheaper, usually disposable UHF (RAIN RFID) tags used for tagging things.

This comprehensive report from IDTechEx gives the complete picture covering passive RFID, battery assisted passive, active RFID, Real Time Locating Systems (RTLS) and chipless RFID. It provides detailed forecasts and depth unmatched by any other.

Market analysis by a huge number of parameters

Using new, unique information researched globally by IDTechEx technical experts, we analyze the RFID market in many different ways. Full analysis by each market is given in great detail including in-depth historic data by application type from 2005 year by year to 2021 and with a 2026 outlook. For passive RFID, forecasts are provided separately for the following application areas. For each we provide the number of tags, average sales price and total value of tags.

Passive UHF market data segment 10 year forecast:
- Retail apparel and footwear
- Retail-other
- Logistics, conveyances, roll cages
- Asset management/inventory
- Medical/health care
- Air baggage and cargo
- Access control/ticketing
- Embedded
- People
- Other

10 year forecast Passive HF RFID market data segments:
- Contactless cards/fobs
- Smart tickets
- Books
- Medical
- Assets/tools
- Passports
- People
- NFC applications
- Other

Passive LF market data segments - 10 year forecast:
- Livestock and pets
- Access control
- Vehicle immobilizers
- Medical
- People
- Other

In addition, ten year forecasts are provided for battery assisted passive and active RFID and RTLS in the following applications:
- Pharma/Healthcare
- Cold retail supply chain
- Consumer goods
- Postal
- Manufacturing parts, tools
- Archiving (samples)
- Military
- Retail CPG Pallet/case
- Shelf edge labels
- Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
- Vehicles
- People (excluding other sectors)
- Car clickers
- Other tag applications

Additionally, the report provides units, asp and total value for RFID readers as follows:
- UHF Fixed portal
- UHF Embedded and handheld
- HF and LF Hand held, fixed, embedded
- LF Vehicle
- NFC Cellphone

The research conducted by IDTechEx ultimately provides ten year forecasts by application area including tags, readers, software and services for the following markets:
- Retail
- Healthcare and medical
- Passenger transport/automotive
- Land, sea logistics and post
- Animals and farming
- Airlines and airports
- Financial, security
- Manufacturing
- Leisure/sports
- Consumer products
- Other

Data is also provided for other sectors including market by territory, value chain positioning, NFC, chip vs chipless and more. Cumulative sales of RFID are analyzed. Progress of key companies is provided in addition to a matrix of hundreds of suppliers.

Interpretation of data

Taking the core data, IDTechEx interprets it in this report to identify aspects such as: Which sectors are booming and which are under performing? Which suppliers and profitable and why? What are the hot sectors? And much more.

For example, after extensive interviews with suppliers, IDTechEx find that there are now emerging or established leaders in most positions of the value chain across the different technologies - yet still very few companies have sales of more than $100 million. There are still many opportunities, which are assessed in this report.

Highly profitable

Major players now and in the future in the various parts of the value chain are identified and the big orders and milestones now and in the future are analyzed. Those doing well in numbers sold are sometimes much less impressive in dollars taken and vice versa. Of course, not everyone will want to serve the severely price constrained, highest volume markets. For them, we examine many niches of at least one billion dollars potential that are emerging and many smaller opportunities where there is even less competition.

Table Of Contents

RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2016-2026
1.1. RFID Market 2016-2026
1.2. Market size by application type 2016-2026
1.3. How governments have driven most of the market
1.4. Non-government successes
1.5. Fragmented value chain
1.6. RFID Companies by gross sales
1.7. Favourite RFID frequency
1.8. RFID market forecasts for passive RFID tags by application and frequency
1.8.1. Passive UHF RFID
1.8.2. Passive HF RFID
1.8.3. Passive LF RFID
1.9. RFID market forecasts for battery assisted passive RFID, active RFID and Real Time Locating Systems RTLS tags by application
1.10. Market by Territory
1.11. Watch the BRICS
1.11.1. Progress in China
1.12. Analysis of RFID case studies
1.13. RFID and IoT
1.14. Impediments to the growth of RFID markets
1.15. Outlook for RFID
2.1. Definitions
2.1.1. RFID
2.1.2. Chipless/printed RFID
2.1.3. Passive and active RFID
2.2. Tags have different shapes
2.3. The RFID value chain
2.4. Where tags are placed
2.5. Examples of spend by application
2.6. The show so far - 1945 to 2016
2.6.1. Cumulative sales by applicational category
2.6.2. Cumulative sales active vs passive
2.6.3. Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
2.7. Historic RFID tag sales 2005 to 2015
2.7.1. Progress in 2005
2.7.2. Progress in 2006
2.7.3. Progress in 2007
2.7.4. Progress in 2008
2.7.5. Progress in 2009
2.7.6. Progress in 2010
2.7.7. Progress in 2011
2.7.8. Progress in 2012
2.7.9. Progress in 2013
2.7.10. Progress in 2014
2.7.11. Progress in 2015
2.8. Ultimate potential
2.8.1. Potential for different applications
2.9. Demand pull
2.10. Constraints on market growth
2.11. RFID Standards (ISO)
2.12. EPCglobal
2.13. Progress with EPC adoption so far
2.14. Near Field Communication (NFC)
2.15. Impediments to highest volume RFID
3.1. Market split by position
3.2. Market size by application
3.2.1. Market size by tag value by application
3.3. Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector
3.4. Future trend of projects for each applicational sector
3.5. Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector
3.6. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
3.7. Postal and courier services
3.8. Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods
3.8.1. Pallet/case tagging
3.8.2. Retail apparel, item level
3.9. Military and federal
3.10. Airlines and Airports
3.11. Logistics, Asset Tracking, Manufacturing
3.12. Libraries
3.13. Secure access and contactless payments
3.14. Smart Ticketing and e-Passports
3.15. Laundry/rented textiles
3.16. Animals
3.17. RFID embedded in consumer electronics devices
4.1. Passive vs active
4.2. Sub categories of passive tag
4.3. Cost Structure of RFID passive tags - labels
4.4. Passive market by applicational sector
4.5. The main things that are passive tagged
4.6. Passive RFID market by range
4.7. RFID technologies by range and cost
4.7.1. Read range and tag cost
4.7.2. RFID Systems/Middleware
4.8. EPC Gen 2 v2
4.9. Chipless passive tags
4.9.1. Chipless options
4.9.2. Latest progress with printed transistor RFID
4.9.3. Forecast for chip vs chipless/printed tags
4.10. NFC
4.10.1. NFC background
4.10.2. Beyond payments and transit
4.10.3. Turning point
4.10.4. Phone Payments: MasterCard and Apple
5.1. Markets for passive UHF - by number of tags
5.2. Market for passive UHF RFID by average price and tag value
5.3. Analysis of passive UHF RFID markets
6.1. Passive HF RFID
6.2. Passive LF RFID
7.2. Three Generations
7.3. Active market by applicational sector
7.4. The main things that are active tagged
7.5. Active RFID market by range
7.6. Active RFID market by battery type
7.6.1. Energy Harvesting and RFID
7.7. New active technologies create new markets
7.7.1. Hand-held homing devices
7.7.2. New markets - Battery Assisted Passive (BAP)
7.7.3. Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE)
7.7.4. The Internet of Things and Wireless Sensor Networks
7.8. An example of massive 'niches'
7.8.1. The prison / correctional facility and parole service opportunity
7.8.2. Electronic Shelf Labels (ESLs)
7.9. Technologies facilitating growth
7.10. Forecasts for active RFID tags
7.11. Forecasts for systems
7.11.1. The spend on active RFID systems
7.11.2. Active RFID players
8.1. Overview
8.2. RFID Interrogator (reader) numbers
8.3. RFID Interrogator (reader) price
8.4. RFID Interrogator (reader) market value
9.1. Leading continents
9.2. Geographical trends in number of projects
9.3. Central and East Asia trends in project numbers
9.4. Americas trends in project numbers
9.5. Europe trends in project numbers
9.6. China
9.7. Japan
9.8. Korea
9.9. USA
9.10. Europe
10.1. Dynamics of the RFID value chain
10.2. Successes and revenues
10.3. Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future
10.3.1. Largest suppliers of chips
10.3.1. UHF RFID readers
10.3.2. Largest suppliers of software and services
10.3.2. Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume
10.3.3. Equipment supply
10.4. Summary and outlook

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