Near Field Communication (NFC) 2014-2024

  • October 2013
  • -
  • IDTechEx Ltd
  • -
  • 220 pages

Near Field Communication (NFC) is mainly useful in mobile phones and tablets for close range transactions/data exchange. The phone becomes an RFID reader or tag. It can read tags on bottles and posters. Over 200 million NFC-enabled mobile phones have recently been deployed: Manufacturers controlling 85% of the mobile phone and tablet market include it. This report critically looks at uses, forecasts, technology, global situation, competing technologies and timelines.

NFC could never be used in a major way until it was widely deployed in devices. In the last year that deployment has happened very rapidly. Now the questions are what will be the major applications? Who in the value chain will mainly benefit? The world's leading financial card companies, mobile phone operators, manufacturers, chip makers, consumer goods companies and others are intensely interested and investing strongly.

NFC is a set of short-range wireless technologies, typically requiring a distance of 4cm or less to initiate a connection partly because people do not trust making secure transactions at the longer distances typical with Bluetooth, WiFi and other short range radio protocols. The most popular mobile phone and tablet operating system is heavily committed to NFC.

Mobile phones continue to be by far the most important potential and actual focus of NFC; the technology is particularly suitable for them. The SIM card in your mobile phone is a smart card identifying your account to the network. On NFC phones, the SIM is being extended to act as the Secure Element that can hold other apps such as payment cards. For example, NFC allows you to share small packets of data between an NFC tag and an Android-powered device, or between two Android-powered devices. Most contactless point-of-sale payment systems use an NFC-compatible contactless interface and many of the world's transportation access systems are NFC compatible so considerable infrastructure is already in place for use by NFC-enabled devices. Although progress with transport systems and payments is slow.

Many trials of other potential uses of NFC continue to be created but they tend to be a poor indication of what happens at rollout. To say contactless cards are NFC is playing with words: they predate NFC and would succeed if NFC had never been invented.

This report examines the existing and future applications of NFC technology and the major players competing in the market, along with ten year market forecasts. It covers issues such as standardization, security and licensing, plus global progress split by country and key interviews from 2013.

Table Of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Timelines for NFC adoption
1.2. Great potential
1.3. Forecasts 2014-2024
1.4. The purpose of NFC
1.5. NFC Forum
1.6. Massive rollout in 2013
1.7. Sensor fusion and NFC
1.8. Internet of Things and NFC
1.9. Security and privacy concerns
1.10. Lessons from NFC World Congress Nice France September 2013
1.11. Other impediments to use of NFC
2. WHAT IS NFC?
2.1. NFC modes
2.2. GSMA
2.3. Store Logistics and Payment with NFC: StoLPaN
2.4. Other standardization bodies involved
2.5. Security - a tradeoff
2.6. Recent successful security attacks
2.7. Embedded secure element vs SIM secure element
2.8. Licensing IP
3. COMPETITION FOR NFC
3.1. Digital cash and NFC
3.2. Digital wallet
3.3. Digital wallets and similar functions in action
3.3.1. Apple Passbook
3.3.2. cashcloud
3.3.3. Dwolla
3.3.4. Geode by iCache
3.3.5. Google wallet
3.3.6. ISIS
3.3.7. Lemon Wallet
3.3.8. PayPal and Chirpify
3.3.9. Square Wallet
3.3.10. Venmo
4. NFC ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES
4.1. NFC Achievements
4.2. NFC challenges
5. PHASES OF NFC ROLLOUT and MARKET FORECASTS
5.1. Phases of NFC rollout
5.2. Market forecasts
5.2.1. Market for PCs, tablets, mobile phones and derivatives
5.2.2. Market for NFC-enabled mobile phones and other devices
5.2.3. e-commerce forecasts
6. GLOBAL PROGRESS WITH NFC IN 2013
6.1. Australia
6.1.1. Intentions of European Telcos
6.2. Austria
6.3. Canada
6.4. Chile
6.5. China
6.6. Czech Republic
6.7. Finland
6.8. France
6.9. Germany
6.10. Hong Kong
6.11. India
6.12. Ireland
6.13. Israel
6.14. Italy
6.15. Japan
6.15.1. Pioneering Sony, payment and transport statistics, Felica
6.16. Korea
6.17. Malaysia
6.18. New Zealand
6.19. Nigeria
6.20. Poland
6.21. Romania
6.22. Russia
6.23. Singapore
6.24. Slovakia
6.25. Spain
6.26. Taiwan
6.27. Turkey
6.28. Ukraine
6.29. United Kingdom
6.30. USA
7. NFC IMPLICATIONS OF SENSOR FUSION, INTERNET OF THINGS, RFID, INDOOR POSITIONING SYSTEMS
7.1. Sensor fusion and NFC
7.2. The Internet of Things and NFC
7.3. RFID and NFC
7.4. How governments drive most of the market
7.5. Non-government successes
7.6. Continued recession-proof rapid growth
7.7. Strange behaviour
7.8. Technical trends
7.9. Favourite RFID frequency
7.10. Watch the BRICS
7.11. Russia
7.12. China
7.13. Today's leaders continue to excel
7.14. Wider still and wider
7.15. Analysis of cumulative number of RFID projects analysed
7.16. Market projections 2012-2022
7.17. Rapid growth
7.18. RFID during turmoil in the global economy
7.19. Contactless smart cards dominate by value
7.20. RFID Forecasts by tag location - passive tags
7.21. RFID forecasts by tag location - active and battery assisted tags
7.22. RFID will not be big in China, it will be huge
7.23. Lessons from the last ten years
7.24. Pallet/case tagging
7.25. Drugs
7.26. Airline Baggage
7.27. Retail apparel, item level
7.28. RFID cards, tickets and NFC
7.29. Animals
7.30. Logistics, Asset Tracking, Manufacturing
7.31. Follow governments
7.32. Active RFID and RTLS comes to the fore
7.33. Billion dollar niches, sometimes with little competition
7.34. New technology
7.35. Impediments to the growth of RFID markets
7.36. Indoor Positioning Systems and NFC
7.37. Real Time Locating Systems
7.38. RTLS takes off
7.39. More advanced forms
7.40. Market size 2013-2024
7.41. The need
7.42. RTLS is mainly about healthcare
7.43. RTLS mainly gets used in the USA
7.44. IPS and RTLS mainly gets developed and made in the USA
7.45. The link between IPS and RTLS
7.46. Commonality of interest is only just beginning
7.47. IPS and RTLS are almost all about large buildings
7.48. Ranking of frequencies by popularity
7.49. ZigBee
7.50. The unique attraction of WiFi
7.51. Basic measuring principle - relative popularity
8. KEY INTERVIEWS IN 2013
8.1. Cubic Transportation Systems, Inc, USA
8.2. MeaWallet, Norway
8.3. Nissin, Czech Republic
8.4. RBR, UK
8.5. Smart-TEC, Germany
8.6. Tag and Play, France
8.7. Ticketmobile, Norway
8.8. Interview in Japan
APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY

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