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China Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 93 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The decline in the value of the yuan, as well as market tightening in some segments, has benefited the Chinese petrochemicals industry, which has struggled with competitiveness. The result of rising domestic production will be a cut in imports and, in segments such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) where China produces a surplus, rising basic polymers exports. This is our core scenario over the short term, and one that will lead to a glut in Asian petrochemicals supply that should be felt in 2017. However, with naphtha and ethane at a low price, in the long term the drive towards coal- and methanol-based chemicals will put the industry at a disadvantage. Chinese petrochemicals output gathered pace in the first eight months of 2016, with ethylene output up 6.6% y-o-y to 13.9mn tonnes and primary plastic production rising 7.9% y-o-y to 66.4mn tonnes. Plastic product volumes grew 5.2% y-o-y to 65.2mn tonnes. Although petrochemicals output is rising, capacity utilisation for coal-based polyethylene producers was estimated at 65-70% in 2016, down from over 80% in 2015, while China's polypropylene (PP) operating rate was around 75% due to tighter supplies.

- China's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score declined by 0.4 points amid a decline in country risk ratings. However, it has risen from third to second place in the regional ranking, 0.2 points ahead of Japan and 0.6 points behind South Korea, with its decline in its RRI score lower than the regional average.

Table Of Contents

China Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 11
Economy 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Table: China's Petrochemicals Sector ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated), 2012-2020 20
Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Economic Analysis 21
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 25
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Ranking 28
Market Overview 29
Industry Trends And Developments 33
Table: New China Coal-to-Olefins and Methanol-to-Olefins Plants in 2016 38
Table: Conventional Cracker Projects, 2016-2020 39
Upstream And Refining 40
Table: Refineries In China With Over 200,000b/d Capacity 42
Aromatics And Derivatives 50
Company Profile 51
China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) 51
PetroChina 55
Table: PetroChina Financial Results (CNYmn) 58
Regional Overview 59
Asia Overview 59
Global Industry Overview 65
13th Five-Year Plan 72
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 72
Summary Of Contents 72
Chapter 1: Overview 73
Table: Targets 73
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 74
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 75
China Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016$$
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 76
Chapter 5: Industries 77
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 78
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 78
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 79
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 80
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 81
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 81
Others: 81
Demographic Forecast 83
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 84
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 84
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 85
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 85
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 86
Glossary 88
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 88
Methodology 89
Industry Forecast Methodology 89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 91
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 92
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 93

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