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Venezuela Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 109 pages

BMI View: In view of the substantial headwinds facing the Venezuelan economy, we have downgraded ourreal GDP forecasts for the country for 2015 and 2016, seeing contractions of 5.6% and 2.9% respectively.The economy's outlook will continue to be dimmed by poor macroeconomic governance, high inflation, lowoil prices and significant political uncertainty. We expect household consumption to continue to beconstrained by high inflation - which has substantially eroded purchasing power (we forecast headlineconsumer price inflation of 78.3% y-o-y for 2015) - and government price controls, which create marketinefficiencies that significantly reduce productivity (and, by extension, income).

As a result, food consumption will suffer in US dollar terms over the short term.Headline Industry Data (US dollar terms):

- Per capita food consumption compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast 2014 to 2019 = -14.0%.
- Alcoholic drink sales CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +9.0%.- Soft drink sales CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +9.1%.
- Mass grocery retail sales CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = -13.3%.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Food and Drink Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Food 9
Drink 11
Mass Grocery Retail 13
Industry Forecast 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Food 17
Food Consumption 17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2019) 18
Confectionery 18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2019) 19
Drink 20
Alcoholic Drinks 20
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2019) 21
Soft Drinks 22
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2019) 23
Hot Drinks 23
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2019) 24
Mass Grocery Retail 24
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2019) 25
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type 25
Trade 26
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data and Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2019) 27
Macroeconomic Forecast 28
Economic Analysis 28
Industry Risk Reward Index 33
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index 33
Table: Latin America Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Q415 35
Table: Latin America Food and Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Index Q415 (scores out of 10) 38
Venezuela Risk/Reward Index 39
Market Overview 40
Food 40
Food Production 40
Confectionery 41
Agriculture 41
Dairy 41
Meat 42
Seafood 42
Drink 43
Alcoholic Drinks 43
Soft Drinks 44
Hot Drinks 44
Mass Grocery Retail 45
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Venezuela 2006-2011) 46
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Venezuela 2006-2011) 46
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Venezuela 2006-2011) 47
Industry Trends And Developments 48
Food 48
Key Industry Trends And Developments 48
Drink 53
Key Industry Trends And Developments 53
Mass Grocery Retail 56
Key Industry Trends And Developments 56
Competitive Landscape 58
Table: Key Players In Venezuela's Food Sector 58
Table: Key Players In Venezuela's Drink Sector 59
Table: Key Players In Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 60
Company Profile 62
Alimentos Heinz 62
Cargill Venezuela 64
Coca-Cola FEMSA 66
Diageo de Venezuela 69
Empresas Polar 71
Makro Venezuela 74
Mercal CA 76
Pernod Ricard Venezuela 78
Global Industry Overview 80
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry 83
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios 91
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup 96
Demographic Forecast 98
Demographic Outlook 2015 98
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025) 99
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025) 99
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025) 100
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025) 100
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025) 101
Glossary 103
Food and Drink 103
Mass Grocery Retail 103
Methodology 105
Industry Forecast Methodology 105
Sector-Specific Methodology 106
Sources 106
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 107
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 108
Table: Weighting 109

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