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Brazil Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:
The impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff means Michel Temer will see her term out to 2019, which is unlikely prove enough time for his major structural changes to infrastructure policies to have a great effect, though they could be a long-term game-changer. In the near term, uneven growth will be driven by timid economic recovery, limited foreign investment and a semblance of political stability.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- We maintain our construction industry value real growth forecast for 2016, with the industry expected to contract by 3.4%. A 6.2% contraction was reported for Q1 2016, while employment in the sector continues to fall in 2016, down 4.8% y-o-y in Q1, following a 10% fall in 2015. Despite the new administration beginning to make structural changes to infrastructure planning and investment, we maintain our cautious forecast of 1.2% growth in 2017, driven primarily by base effects following three years of recession in the industry.

- Following the impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff, some political stability has been gained as President Michel Temer will see out the remainder of her term to 2019. Yet it will take time for infrastructure plans and investment to gain traction, and therefore we are maintaining our forecast over the coming several years at 1.4% on average between 2018 and 2025. Temer has dissolved the Workers' Party's policies which have guided infrastructure investment over the past decade, including the PAC and the transport concessions programme, and is auditing the Minha Casa Minha Vida low income housing programme. With limited detail on what the future plans will look like beyond the high level details of the Investment Partnership Programme (IPP) we are holding our outlook.

- Addressing constrained domestic capacity and weak international investor sentiment will be crucial for the success of President Temer's new infrastructure plans. It will take several months for new regulations to be worked out and then several more months for tenders to take place, at which point Temer would be nearing the end of his two-year term. As a result, we anticipate limited short-term positive implications from the restructuring - particularly on jobs and growth, while noting that it is necessary in order to support a multi-year recovery in the market.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Infrastructure Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Brazil Construction Industry Forecast 8
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Brazil 2016-2016) 8
SWOT 9
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Brazil 10-Year Construction Industry Forecast 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Investment Partnership Programme (PPI) Versus Logistics Investment Programme (IPL) 15
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 17
Latest Updates 17
Table: Brazil 10-Year Transport Infrastructure Industry Forecast 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Investment Partnership Programme (PPI) Versus Logistics Investment Programme (IPL) 19
Table: Transport Projects 22
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 24
Latest Updates 24
Table: Brazil 10-Year Energy and Utilities Industry Forecast 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Energy and Utilities Projects 32
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 34
Latest Updates 34
Table: Brazil 10 Year Residential and Non-Residential Industry Forecast 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects 44
Industry Risk Reward Index 46
Brazil - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 46
Risk/Reward Index 46
Rewards 46
Risks 47
Latin America Infrastructure RRI: Private Sector Participation Propelling Outperformers 49
Table: Latin America Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 56
Market Overview 57
Competitive Landscape 57
Table: Key Company Financials 59
Company Profile 61
Odebrecht 61
Table: Odebrecht Financial Data 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sector-Specific Methodology 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 72
Sector-Specific Methodology 73
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 74

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