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Brazil Retail Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:

Brazil is in the midst of the largest economic and political crisis in more than a decade. This is having an adverse impact on household incomes and consumer confidence. While a gradual recovery is expected to start in 2017, a weak labour market, elevated inflation and reduced access to consumer credit will continue weighing on the country's retail sector over the near term. As such, we expect consumer spending to remain concentrated on essential goods and services, with the preferences geared towards lower-range product categories across the board. Key Views & Developments

- In USD terms, headline household spending is forecast to decline by 23.7% in 2016, negatively affected by the depreciation of Brazilian real against the US dollar as well as the protracted economic recession in the country. In local currency, terms total household spending is expected to register 5.3% growth during 2016. We forecast total household spending to rebound during 2017-2020, expanding by an annual average 8.3% in USD terms.

- We expect transport and food & non-alcoholic drinks to remain the two largest spending categories, accounting for 20.1% and 17.4% of the total expenditure respectively in 2020.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Retail Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Brazil 2013-2020) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Brazil 2013-2020) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink And Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 21
Clothing And Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 22
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 23
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Brazil 2013-2020) 26
Table: Labour Market Data (Brazil 2013-2020) 29
Demographic Forecast 30
Table: Total Population (Brazil 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Babies (Brazil 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young Children (Brazil 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Children (Brazil 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Brazil 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young People (Brazil 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Brazil 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Brazil 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Young Adults (Brazil 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Brazil 2013-2020) 37
Table: Population: Urban (Brazil 2013-2020) 37
Industry Risk/Reward Index 38
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416 38
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Market Overview 41
Latest Updates 41
Competitive Landscape 47
Clothing And Footwear 47
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers 47
Household Goods 48
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 48
Electronics 49
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 49
Department Stores 49
Table: Selected Department Stores 49
E-Commerce 50
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers 50
Pharmacies 50
Table: Selected Pharmacies/ Drugstores 50
Glossary 51
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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