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Colombia Retail Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: With the fourth largest economy in Latin America, measured by GDP, Colombia's retail sectorpresents many opportunities for international and domestic retailers, as well as investors. Years ofeconomically sound policy have lowered barriers to entry for international firms, and sustained economicgrowth has brought lower unemployment rates and higher levels of affluence for a significant portion of thepopulation. However, lingering poverty levels, a deficient physical and transportation infrastructure, andthe slow rate of non-cash payment integration into the economy continue to remain a hindrance toachieving full economic growth potential.

Nevertheless, significant opportunities remain. In particular, thecontinuing fall of the informal sector's market share and the continuing rise of e-commerce and onlineretail should provide meaningful incentive for further investment and expansion.The Colombian economy is set for a sharp slowdown in the coming quarters, as the country struggles in theface of weaker trade dynamics and slowing household spending. Indeed, after real GDP growth of 4.6% in2014, we forecast only a 3.1% expansion in 2015.

This is well below both the government's projections(3.6%) and Bloomberg consensus (3.3%), and reflects our below-consensus oil price and productionforecasts for Colombia. Moreover, we expect real GDP growth will remain weak over the coming fiveyears, averaging 3.4% compared to 4.8% in the past half decade, as the impact of weaker oil prices andfalling crude production continue to temper the country's economic outlook. This will weigh on the retailsector's prospects, particularly in the luxury non-essentials segments, as disposable income levels remainsubdued.

Table Of Contents

Colombia Retail Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Retail SWOT 10
Political 12
Economic 13
Industry Forecast 14
Headline Retail Forecast 14
Table: Total Household Spending (Colombia 2012-2019) 16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Colombia 2012-2019) 17
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Colombia 2012-2019) 17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Colombia 2012-2019) 18
Retail Sector Forecast 21
Food and Drink 21
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Colombia 2012-2019) 22
Clothing and Footwear 22
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Colombia 2012-2019) 23
Household Goods 23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Colombia 2012-2019) 23
Personal Care and Effects 24
Table: Personal Care Spending (Colombia 2012-2019) 25
Household Income and Numbers Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (Colombia 2012-2019) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (Colombia 2012-2019) 29
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Colombia 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Babies (Colombia 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young Children (Colombia 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Children (Colombia 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Colombia 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young People (Colombia 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Colombia 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Colombia 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Young Adults (Colombia 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Colombia 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Urban (Colombia 2012-2019) 35
Macroeconomic Forecasts 36
Economic Analysis 36
Table: Colombia - Key Economic Indicators 36
Table: Colombia - Private Consumption Forecasts 39
Table: Colombia - Government Consumption Forecasts 40
Table: Colombia - Fixed Investment Forecasts 41
Table: Colombia - Net Exports Forecasts 41
Industry Risk Reward Index 42
Latin America Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index 42
Colombia Risk/Reward Index 43
Rewards 43
Risks 43
Market Overview 44
Competitive Landscape 48
MGR 48
Supermarkets 50
Convenience Stores 50
Quick-Service Restaurants (QSRs) 51
Department Stores 52
Fashion 53
Glossary 54
Methodology 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sources 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68

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