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Mexico Retail Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Mexico's retail market is expected to prove the regional outperformer in the short-to-mediumterm, with positive economic and labour trends supporting healthy growth in household income rates,which in turn will boost spending in a number of retail segments. The country is attracting a high level ofinternational investor interest and we expect to see a large number of new retail units opening over thecoming months, including the introduction of major international fashion and electronics brands to themarket - reflecting growing consumer demand for non-essential and higher value items as disposableincome rates rise. While some risk to investors does stem from ongoing security concerns and a relianceupon the health of the US economy, overall Mexico's retail market is expected to grow and diversify rapidlyand as such presents a valuable opportunity for a range of retailers.

Key Views & Developments

- Strong growth in labour-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and construction will lead to higheremployment rates in Mexico, which will provide a valuable boost to average household income rateswhen measured in local currency terms in 2016, though we note currency movements will lead to a shorttermcontraction in average household income when measured in US dollar terms, reflecting the ongoingweakness of the Mexican peso.

- Higher household income rates combined with improving access to credit and low inflation will in turnsupport robust growth in total household spending in 2016, again when measured in local currency terms,with total household spending reaching some MXN5,646bn (USD319bn). Banco de México (Banxico) isexpected to hold the benchmark overnight interest rate at 3.75% when it meets in late June, supportingour current forecasts.

- A number of high profile retailers have announced plans to expand in the Mexican market. Luxury brandDior opened its first store in the country in early 2016 following Bottega Veneta, Bulgari, TAG Heuerand Rolex, which have also entered the market. Swedish brand Make Up Store has also opened a newstore in Mexico City, alongside other Swedish brand H&M, which has expanded rapidly in Mexico.

- Further reflecting the expected growth in the Mexican retail segment, Walmart Mexico announced inMay 2016 it plans to open over 1,000 new stores in Mexico and the wider Central America region overthe next ten years.

Table Of Contents

Mexico Retail Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Mexico 2013-2020) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Mexico 2013-2020) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink and Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 21
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 22
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 23
Personal Care and Effects 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Mexico 2013-2020) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (Mexico 2013-2020) 29
Demographic Forecast 30
Table: Total Population (Mexico 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Babies (Mexico 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young Children (Mexico 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Children (Mexico 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Mexico 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young People (Mexico 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Mexico 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Mexico 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Young Adults (Mexico 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Mexico 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Urban (Mexico 2013-2020) 36
Industry Risk/Reward Index 37
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416 37
Mexico Risk/Reward Index 38
Rewards 38
Risks 39
Market Overview 41
Competitive Landscape 47
Clothing and Footwear 47
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers 47
Household Goods 48
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 48
Electronics 48
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 48
Department Stores 49
Table: Selected Department Stores 49
E-Commerce 49
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers 49
Pharmacies And Drug Stores 50
Table: Selected Pharmacies and Drug Store 50
Glossary 51
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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