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Venezuela Retail Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our projections have been downgraded for growth rates across all sub-sectors of the retailsector. High inflation is a key driver behind this trend. The government has implemented price controls oncertain goods, subsidising basics such as milk and soap. However, there are now severe shortages for manybasic products and food staples, which has led to many retailers to limit the number of purchasesconsumers are able to make. The issue of chronic shortages has been compounded by currency controlswhich have restricted the number of dollars available for the purchase of imports.As a result of high inflation and a chronic shortage of basic goods in Venezuela, together with an unstableeconomic outlook we maintain our negative outlook for household spending trends over the remainder of2015 and the first half of 2016, and this will weigh on the retail sector's growth potential.

Moreover, thetough regulatory environment looks set to remain a barrier to entry for international investors within theretail sector until 2019, while the difficulties surrounding importing items poses a significant risk, as doesthe ever thriving domestic black market. However, as the economy recovers, we expect the burgeoningmiddle-class with higher disposable incomes to stimulate growth across the retail sector.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Retail Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Venezuela 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Venezuela 2012-2019) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 16
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food And Drink 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 20
Clothing And Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 22
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 23
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 24
Household Income And Numbers Forecast 25
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018 25
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018 27
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Venezuela 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Babies (Venezuela 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Children (Venezuela 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Children (Venezuela 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Venezuela 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young People (Venezuela 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Venezuela 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Venezuela 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Venezuela 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Venezuela 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Urban (Venezuela 2012-2019) 34
Macroeconomic Forecasts 35
Economic Analysis 35
Table: Venezuela - Private Consumption Forecasts 36
Table: Venezuela - Government Consumption Forecasts 37
Table: Venezuela - Fixed Investment Forecasts 37
Table: Venezuela - Net Exports Forecasts 39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 40
Latin America Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index 40
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 41
Market Overview 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Malls And Department Stores 45
Mass Grocery Retail 46
Fashion 46
Pharmacies 47
Glossary 48
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 62

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