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  4. > Russia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2015

Russia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Economic sanctions and our in-house Country Risk team's weak economic outlook for Russia,particularly the rouble - which we now forecast will weaken from an average of RUB38.6/USD in 2014 toan average of RUB62/USD in 2015 - are behind our bearish outlook for a severe contraction in device salesin 2015. Russian purchasing power in global markets will be eroded, hitting demand for consumerelectronics devices, and resulting in both deferred purchases and substitution for cheaper models,particularly in the smartphone market.

After the serious disruption of 2015 BMI expects a gradual recoveryto begin in 2016 with rouble stabilisation, before an acceleration in growth in 2017, but total demand in2019 is forecast to still be 34.2% below the 2012 peak in US dollar terms. In this perspective, it is to beexpected that heightened price sensitivity will increase the share of sales captured by local low cost vendorssuch as Yota Devices, Explay and FLY, which all made major inroads in terms of market share in 2013 and2014 and look set to capitalise on wider economic trends over the medium term.

There is also additionaldownside risk to our core scenario from the political sphere where tensions between Russia and the UScould see the sanctions imposed on Russia in mid-2014 maintained or even extended.Headline Expenditure ProjectionsComputer Hardware Sales: USD12.0bn in 2014 to USD7.0bn in 2015, -42% in US dollar terms. Roubledepreciation causing both deferred purchases and a shift to lower value products due to erosion of consumerpurchasing power.

Table Of Contents

Russia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Russia 2013-2019) 15
Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Economic Analysis 21
Table: RUSSIA - Private Consumption Forecasts 25
Table: RUSSIA - Government Consumption Forecasts 26
Table: RUSSIA - Fixed Capital Formation Forecasts 26
Table: RUSSIA - Net Exports Forecasts 27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 28
Industry Risk Reward Index 28
Table: Europe Risk/Rewards Index - Q4 2015 30
Market Overview 31
Computers 31
Table: PC Sales (Russia 2013-2019) 31
AV 39
Table: AV Sales (Russia 2013-2019) 39
Mobile Handsets 45
Table: Mobile Communications (Russia 2013-2019) 45
Competitive Landscape 54
International Companies 54
Table: Huawei Technologies 54
Table: Lenovo 55
Table: Foxconn 56
Local Companies 57
Table: Explay 57
Table: Yota Devices 58
Industry Trends And Developments 59
Regulatory Development 65
Table: IT Authorities 65
Demographic Forecast 69
Demographic Outlook 69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Sector-Specific Methodology 75
Sources 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Sector-Specific Methodology 77
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 78

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