France Defence and Security Industry Update Quarter 4 2011

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 88 pages

Since March 2011, France, along with several other NATO members and allied nations, has performed air strikes and naval operations to protect Libyan civilians against the armed forces of Colonel Muammar Qadhafi, after Libya descended into civil war.
Both the French Navy and French Air Force have been at the forefront of the efforts to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973. At the time of writing (late August 2011), the Libyan capital Tripoli had fallen to the forces of the opposition National Transitional Council (NTC), although NATO operations were continuing, and Colonel Qadhafi continued to evade arrest following a warrant issued to this end by the International Criminal Court on June 27. NATO’s air campaign seem likely to continue until the Libyan leader is either killed or captured and his home town of Sirte, on Libya’s Mediterranean coast, falls to the NTC.
Power project capabilities for the French armed forces have deepened with the commissioning of the Dixmunde, the third member of the Mistral class of amphibious support ships, which was launched in Saint Nazaire on the French Atlantic coast on January 20 2010. Exports of Mistral class vessels to Russia are also in the offing. As regards airlift, the French Air Force remains on schedule to receive its first A400M airlifter in 2013.
Investment continues to flow into the French nuclear deterrent. In addition to activating the ASMP-A airlaunched, stand-off nuclear missile in French Air Force and Navy service, along with the new M51 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile with the latter force, the country has launched experimental ballistic missile detection microsatellites. The move is seen as a prelude to developing a ground- and space-based ballistic missile early warning system for the country.
At the industrial level, the efforts by pan-European defence giant EADS to sell new refuelling aircraft to the United States Air Force were dealt a blow in early 2011, with Airbus’s bid beaten by that of Boeing, the France-based aircraft builder’s long-standing rival. That said, other aircraft exports, most notably of the Dassault Rafale warplane, do stand a good chance of fulfilling combat aircraft requirements in India, Brazil, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, defence industrial cooperation between France and the United Kingdom continues to deepen following the signature in November 2010 of the Declaration on Defence and Security Cooperation by the leaders of the two countries. In terms of industrial projects, the UK and France will collaborate on the development of a new Medium-Altitude, Long-Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. Furthermore, the UK’s two new Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers will be outfitted with equipment to support operations by French carrier-based combat aircraft. Both the UK and France plan to cooperate on performing Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul, and will draft common training and operating procedures for their new A400M military airlifters. Furthermore, spare capacity on the Royal Air Force’s new refuelling aircraft may also be made available for French warplanes. This level of defence industrial cooperation, coupled with the close working relationship that London and Paris have shared during the air campaign over Libya, has been indicative of the increasingly deep defence relationship now being enjoyed by both countries.

Table Of Contents

Industry SWOT Analysis 7
Political Environment and Risk Analysis Analysis ... 7
Economic Industry SWOT Analysis . 7

Environment Overview Industry SWOT Analysis . 8
World Political Outlook .. 9
World Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece .. 9
Data : Election Timetable ... 13
United States ... 16
Latin America . 16
Western Europe .. 17
Russia And The Former Soviet Union . 19
Middle East And North Africa 19
Asia . 21
Wild Cards To Watch .. 23
Europe Security Overview . 26
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s . 26
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 26
NATO Relevancy Questioned, But Viable Alternatives Lacking ... 32
Political And Geopolitical Consequences Of The Sovereign Debt Crises 36
Data : Eurozone Convergence Indicators ... 38
Security Risk Ratings ... 43
Data : Europe Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) 43
Data : Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ... 44
City Terrorism Rating . 45
Data : BMI’s Western Europe City Terrorism Index .. 46
Political Overview .. 47
Domestic Politics 47
Long-Term Political Outlook .. 48
Security Overview . 51
Internal Security Situation ... 51
Latest Developments ... 53
Timeline: Internal Threats .. 54
External Security Situation .. 54
Armed Forces And Defence Market ... 57
Armed Forces . 57
Current Strength . 59
International Deployments .. 60
Data : Principal Deployments Of The French Armed Forces .. 63
Coordination And Joint Operations 64
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 66

Industry Analysis 68
Industry Trends And Developments 68
Latest Developments ... 71
Timeline: Defence And Procurement .. 77
Arms Trade Overview . 80
Data : Key Players In The French Defence Market .. 87
Procurement Background ... 87

Market Projection Scenario ... 90
Armed Forces . 90
Data : Armed Forces, from 2000 to 2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ... 90
Government Expenditure 91
Data : Government Expenditure On Defence Market, from 2008 to 2015 . 91
Data : Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of Gross Domestic Product, from 2008 to 2015 (US$mn) 92
French Defence Trade 94
Data : Defence Exports, from 2008 to 2015 (US$mn) 94
Data : Defence Imports, from 2008 to 2015 (US$mn) 94
Data : Defence Trade Balance, from 2008 to 2015 (US$mn) . 94
Macroeconomic Projection ... 95
Data : France - Economic Activity, from 2008 to 2015 .. 96
Company Profiles .. 97
Dassault Aviation 97
DCNS .. 99
EADS .101
Thales 104
BMI Methodology 108
How We Generate Our Market Projections 108
Defence Market 108
City Terrorism Rating 109
Data : Methodology ...111
Sources ..112

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