China Autos Industry Update Quarter 4 2011

  • August 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 106 pages

China's total revenues actually fell y-o-y for the second consecutive month in May, prompting a revision of BMI's total vehicle revenues growth projection for the full year to 5.2%. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), vehicle revenues were down 3.98% in May, to 1.38mn units, following a 0.25% drop in April. There was a rally in June as the passenger car sector returned to positive y-o-y growth. This took total vehicle revenues for H111 to 9.3mn units, up 3.4% y-o-y, which justified our downward revision.
Our production outlook has also been revised downwards to meet the slower demand, while supply chain issues relating to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami are also playing a part, despite efforts by other suppliers to fill the gap. In May, output of passenger cars fell 10% compared with April, to 1.041mn units, while commercial vehicle output was also down 18.68% month-on-month to 308,000 units. This leaves production for the five-months to May up by 3.19% y-o-y at 7.779mn units, which is lower than revenues in both growth and volume terms. BMI's new production projection projects growth of just 4%, with total output set to reach 17.774mn units.
German carmaker Volkswagen (VW) is sticking to its strategy of producing 3mn units per year in China, despite BMI's expectations of slowing revenues growth over the next five years compared with previous years. This strategy has most recently seen the industry player win Government approval to build two new plants in China, which will take VW's total production presence in the country to 11 facilities. The new plants will be complemented by the expansion of two existing factories in Nanjing and Chengdu, which will have their annual output increased to between 300,000 and 350,000 units. All of the additional capacity falls under VW's plan to invest Euros 10.6bn (US Dollar 1.64mn) in China between 2011 and 2015.
German carmaker BMW has also doubled its initial investment for China as the revenues growth of several premium brands in April exceeded their volume brand counterparts. This is in line with BMI's projection for the premium sector to outperform the overall vehicle industry . BMW will now invest Euros 1bn (US Dollar 1.4bn) in grow ing its new plant in Tiexi, Shenyang province. The plant will now have an installed capacity of 200,000 units, which when coupled with an expansion of its Da Dong plant, will result in an annual production capacity of 300,000 units in China. BMI believes that China will be one of the most crucial industry s in the global premium sector leadership race, as it was one of the most closely contested in 2010 and offers better growth opportunities than the more developed states of Germany and the US.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary 5
Industry SWOT Analysis 6
China Auto Industry Environment and Risk Analysis ... 6
China Political Environment and Risk Analysis .. 7
China Economic Environment and Risk Analysis 8
China Business Environment SWOT . 9
World Overview 10
Data : BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Market 10
Regional Overview Supplier View Plays Out As Hyundai Mobis Wins USD 233mn Japanese Order . 15

Environment Overview Ratings 17
Data : Business Environment Ratings -- Auto Market Asia Pacific 20
Macroeconomic Projection Scenario .. 21
China - Economic Activity .. 23

Market Projection Scenario ... 24
Production and Sales ... 24
Data : China Autos Segment : Historical Data And Projections, from 2008 to 2015 . 24
Trade ... 25
Data : China Autos Segment : Historical Data And Projections, from 2008 to 2015 . 25

Industry Developments . 26
Passenger Vehicles - Projection and Analysis . 28
Production and Sales .. 28
Data : China Autos Segment : Historical Data And Projections, from 2008 to 2015 . 28
Company Developments ... 29
Premium Segment 29
New Energy.. 30
Commercial Vehicles - Projection and Analysis .. 32
Production and Sales .. 32
Data : China Autos Segment : Historical Data And Projections, from 2008 to 2015 . 32
Company Developments.. 33
Motorcycles - Projection and Analysis .. 35
Data : China Autos Segment : Historical Data And Projections, from 2008 to 2015 . 35
Company Developments.. 35
Suppliers - Analysis .. 36
Company Developments ... 36
Company Monitor .. 38
BMI Favourites Feature In Nissan ASEAN Strategy ... 38
Stealing A March 38
The Rising Star ... 39
EMs Key To Growth ... 40
Company Profiles .. 41
Shanghai GM .. 41
Volkswagen (China) 42
Ford Motor (China) 44
Daimler (China).. 45
BMI Methodology .. 46
How We Generate Our Projection ing Model . 46
Sources ... 47

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