China Autos Report Q4 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 88 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updatesAccording to the China Association Of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), vehicle sales in June 2014 rose 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 1,845,800 units, bringing sales for H114 to 11,683,100 units, an increase of 8.4% y-o-y. It is important to note, however, that sales in June grew at the smallest y-o-y pace since March 2013 and were dragged down by the commercial vehicle (CV) segment, which contracted 19.7% yo- y in the same month. While we are maintaining our passenger car sales forecast for 2014, we are downgrading our CV sales forecast due to the segment's poor performance year-to-date.

Economic Rebalancing Biting Into CV Demand
As fixed-asset investment slows and infrastructure spending cools (in part due to Beijing's reticence towards large-scale stimulus to prop up economic growth), it is only natural that demand for CVs will be hit, given their usage in the various Chinese industrial sectors. Despite having a downbeat outlook on the segment for some time (see 'Passenger Car Sales To Bring In A Strong 2013', October 17 2013), the sharp y-o-y decline in CV sales in the past two months has been more pronounced than expected.

Table Of Contents

China Autos Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political . 11
Economic 12
Business Environment .. 13
Industry Forecast .. 14
Production And Sales 14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018).. . 14
Alternative Fuel . 17
Passenger Cars 32
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018). 32
Commercial Vehicles 39
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018).. 39
Motorcycles 41
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018).. . 41
Company Developments .. 41
Suppliers 43
Macroeconomic Forecasts 49
Economic Analysis 49
More Cities To Witness Price Declines 50
Government, PBoC Likely To Tweak Policies .. 51
Economic Reforms Another Headwind 52
Table: Economic Activity (China 2009-2018).. . 54
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 55
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings 55
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos.. 58
Company Profile 59
Company Monitor 59
Shanghai GM .. 62
Volkswagen 64
Ford Motor 66
Daimler . 68
Regional Overview 70
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS). . 70
Global Industry Overview .. 76
Global Overview . 76
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs).76
Outperformers Boost European Outlook . 76
Trucks Give North America A Lift . 77
India Brings Relief To BRICs 79
Demographic Forecast . 81
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 82
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total). 83
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-202084
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020. . 84
Methodology .. 85
Industry Forecasts .. 85
Sector-Specific Methodology 86
Sources 86
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 87
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators.88

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