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  4. > China Autos Report Q4 2015

China Autos Report Q4 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, auto sales in June 2015 declined 2.3% yo-
y to 1,803,100 units, bringing sales for H115 to 11,854,900 units, an increase of 1.5% y-o-y. We have downgraded our 2015 sales growth forecast to 3.9% as a slowing economy coupled with the recent stock market collapse remain key headwinds to demand.

Besides these factors, we see auto demand taking a hit from the increasing number of cities placing restrictions on car sales to tackle their worsening air pollution and traffic problems. For instance, Shenzhen announced curbs on car sales in December 2014 and has capped the number of new cars sold in the city to 100,000 units a year. As more upper tier cities, which have traditionally been strong demand drivers, impose caps, automakers will have to accelerate their expansion in the country's less penetrated Western region to find new areas of growth.

Table Of Contents

China Autos Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economy 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Production And Sales 14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2019) 14
Alternative Fuel 15
Suppliers 18
Fuel Efficiency Regulation Will Throw Up Opportunities 19
Passenger Cars 21
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2019) 21
Table: Age Demographics Of Auto Loan Users 27
Commercial Vehicles 29
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2019) 29
Motorcycles 31
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2019) 31
Suppliers 33
Table: Phasing in of the 'Phase 4' Standard 38
Macroeconomic Forecasts 39
Economic Analysis 39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Developed States Still Lead 43
Frontier Markets Are A Risky Bet 44
On The Bubble 44
Company Profile 45
E-Bus Boom Carrying BYD To New Heights 45
Shanghai GM 48
Volkswagen 51
Ford Motor 53
Daimler 55
Regional Overview 57
Industry Trend Analysis 57
Replacement Cycle Aids Growth 57
Bigger Markets Lagging 58
Smaller Markets Have Untapped Potential 59
Global Industry Overview 61
1 Currency Weakness Hurting African Growth 61
2 Increasing Local Content In Trouble Spots 62
3 SUVs Rolling On 63
4 Tech/Autos Lines Are Blurring 64
Demographic Forecast 66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecasts 71
Sector-Specific Methodology 72
Sources 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 74

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