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Achieving the goals that the European Commission has set out for ultra-fast broadband in its Digital Agenda will require sizeable investments, which will vary depending on each country’s technological choices. At the same time, ultra-fast broadband will generate additional revenue that will depend on operators’ product line and sales strategies. This insight examines the revenue generated by UFB solutions compared to network rollout costs.

Europe, EU-27, Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom

access market, access revenue, Base Case, broadband subscribers, cable network coverage, cable operators, copper-based technologies, DAE, deployment costs, Digital Agenda for Europe, Docsis 3.0., fixed broadband, FTTC, FTTH, FTTH coverage, FTTH/B, FTTLA, GPON, Next Generation Network, NGN, NGN access markets, NGN coverage, NGN deployment costs, UFB, UFB access market, UFB ARPU, UFB subscribers, ultra-fast broadband, ultra-fast broadband access market, ultra-fast broadband coverage, VDSL, vectoring

Table Of Contents

FTTx Insight - NGN - Deployment costs and access market revenue

1. Main findings 5

2. Introduction 7

3. Evaluation of NGN deployment costs 8
3.1. Assumptions and cost parameters 8
3.2. Scenarios 10
3.2.1. Scenario 1: "Base Case" 10
3.2.2. Scenario 2: "Vectoring" 10
3.2.3. Scenario 3: "FTTH/B" 11
3.3. Conclusion for NGN deployment costs 12

4. Revenues from NGN access markets 13
4.1. Analysis of UFB offerings 13
4.2. UFB market value 15

5. Conclusion: Costs vs. revenues for UFB in the EU-27 17


Table 1: Major national UFB programs 7
Table 2: Main cost parameters for NGNs 9
Table 3: Base Case scenario: Breakdown of FTTLA and FTTH/B rollout (2011-2020), by population density 10
Table 4: Cost of reaching DAE goals according to the Base Case scenario 10
Table 5: Vectoring scenario: Breakdown of VDSL vectoring rollout (2011 a 2020), by population density 11
Table 6: Cost of reaching DAE goals according to the Vectoring scenario 11
Table 7: Cost of reaching DAE goals according to the FTTH/B scenario 12
Table 8: Description of the 4 UFB delivery models 14
Table 9: Main strategic objectives attached to the different UFB sales models 15
Table 10: Characteristics of the evolution of UFB operators' positioning scenarios 16
Table 11: UFB market value for the EU-27, from 2011 to 2016 16


Figure 1: Cost comparison of NGN deployment scenarios 5
Figure 2: UFB market and subscriber growth in the EU-27 16
Figure 3: Revenue distribution by technology, EU-27, by end of 2011 17
Figure 4: Cost/revenue comparison for UFB, EU-27, 2011-2020 18

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