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Japan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: While it will continue to remain a global refining powerhouse, aggressive cutbacks in refiningcapacity and a gradual shift away from oil-based fuels will weigh on Japan's refined fuels exports in thelong run. Japan will remain the largest LNG buyer in the world through to 2025, though the risk of an LNGoversupply domestically is pertinent due to the rise of alternative energy sources such as nuclear, coal andrenewables energy, which will erode gas' share in the total power mix and drag on overall demand.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Despite boasting world-class capability, the Japanese refining sector is vulnerable to further consolidationand capacity cuts as the government seeks to reduce overcapacity and improve the sector's efficiency.Mergers of the country's largest refiners are imminent, with JX Holdings and TonenGeneral expected tomerge by April 2017, while Idemitsu Kosan and Showa Shell are set to follow likewise betweenOctober 2016 and April 2017.

- Difficulties with restarting Japan's currently shut nuclear reactors will see the country increasingly rely oncoal and renewables energy, eroding LNG share in the total power mix. In July 2016, the Otsu districtcourt rejected Kansai Electric's rejection of a March injunction which ordered the firm to shut down itsNo.3 and No.4 nuclear reactors at its Takahama plant.

- The Japanese Fair Trade Commission (FTC) has launched an investigation to determine whetherdestination clauses contained within existing long-term LNG contracts with international suppliers violatedomestic competition laws. If found so, it could see Japan step-up efforts to renegotiate existing contractterms.

- Japan will remain a major exporter of various light-to-middle distillates throughout our forecast period to2025, though large import requirement for LPG and petrochemicals will see it remain a net importer ofrefined fuels.

Table Of Contents

Japan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Japan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2014-2019) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2020-2025) 11
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Japan - Key Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2014-2019) 14
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2020-2025) 14
Upstream Production - Gas 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2020-2025) 17
Refining 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Japan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Japan 2020-2025) 20
Refined Fuels Consumption 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2020-2025) 24
Gas Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2020-2025) 27
Trade - Oil 28
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates 28
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019) 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025) 30
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates 30
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 42
Japan - Risk/Reward Index 43
Japan Upstream Index - Overview 43
Japan Downstream Index - Overview 44
Market Overview 45
Japan Energy Market Overview 45
Regulatory Structure 45
Fiscal Regime 46
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 47
Oil Refineries 47
Table: Refineries In Japan 47
Service Stations 48
Oil Storage Facilities 48
LNG Terminals 49
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Japan 49
Oil Terminals/Ports 51
Gas Storage Facilities 51
Gas Pipelines 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Regional Overview 54
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook 54
Glossary 61
Table: Glossary Of Terms 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Source 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 67
Table: Weighting 68

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