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Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 85 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Upstream investment into Bolivia has remained intact thanks to the country's strategic locationand favourable below-ground prospects. However, weak reserves growth of both oil and gas persists,creating long-term uncertainty for production and exports. Continued investment in projects to monetisedomestic gas resources for local consumption in the residential, power and industrial sectors could tightenthe supply-demand picture in the medium term.Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Data from Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) shows natural gas discoveries inBolivia totalled about 1.5trn cubic meters in 2015, underscoring the country's below ground promise.However, we caution that significant operational headwinds will persist given the company's shrinkingprofits and budget amid the global sector downturn. Our outlook for 2016 remains positive, with anumber of key projects, including first gas from the Ipati and Aquio fields; however, we caution thatlong-term growth will be challenging to achieve.

- The start-up of national oil company YPFB's virtual LNG supply project in Bolivia on February 15marked an important change in the country's domestic energy makeup. As the first such project of its kindin Bolivia, the USD144mn Rio Grande LNG facility will support growing demand for gas in ruralcommunities which lack access to the country's vast resource due to a insufficient pipeline connectivity.

- In February, the Bolivian government signed a much-anticipated series of agreements with Russian oiland gas major Gazprom covering exploration, production and transportation of hydrocarbons as well asconstruction and upgrading of associated infrastructure. The memorandum also included updates toBolivia's natural gas development plan through 2040, implying added involvement by the Russian firm.

- In March, the joint venture between PdVSA and YPFB to drill the Lliquimuni C X-1 well in the La Pazregion came up dry, with the well failing to yield any commercially viable quantities of oil and gas. Theproject had been touted as highly promising by President Evo Morales prior to its development.

Table Of Contents

Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Bolivia - Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Bolivia 2014-2019) 15
Table: Oil Production (Bolivia 2020-2025) 15
Upstream Production - Gas 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Gas Production (Bolivia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Bolivia 2020-2025) 19
Refining 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bolivia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bolivia 2020-2025) 22
Refined Fuels Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bolivia 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bolivia 2020-2025) 24
Gas Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Gas Consumption (Bolivia 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Bolivia 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil 29
Crude Oil: Latest Updates 29
Crude Oil: Structural Trends 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bolivia 2014-2020) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bolivia 2020-2025) 31
Refined Products: Latest Updates 31
Refined Products: Structural Trends 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bolivia 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bolivia 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bolivia 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bolivia 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk/Reward Index 37
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 37
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings 38
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 39
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit 42
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 44
Bolivia - Risk/Reward Index 45
Market Overview 47
Bolivia Energy Market Overview 47
Regulatory Structure 47
Table: Bolivia - Upstream Tax Regime 48
Licensing Regime 48
Table: Bolivia - Contract And Licensing Regime 48
Licensing Rounds 49
Bolivia Oil and Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Oil Refineries In Bolivia 51
Oil Pipelines 51
Table: Bolivia - Oil Pipelines 51
Gas Pipelines 51
Table: Bolivia - Gas Export Pipelines 52
Competitive Landscape 53
Competitive Landscape Summary 53
Table: Key Upstream Players 54
Table: Key Downstream Player 55
Company Profile 56
YPFB 56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Bolivia 57
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 57
Petrobras 59
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 60
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 60
Repsol Bolivia 62
Table: Key Projects in Bolivia 63
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 63
Regional Overview 65
Latin America Overview 65
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 76
Glossary 78
Table: Glossary Of Terms 78
Methodology 80
Industry Forecast Methodology 80
Source 82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 82
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 84
Table: Weighting 85

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