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Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 147 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for Ukraine's economy has continued to deteriorate rapidly since the publication ofour last Food & Drink quarterly. The economy continued its rapid implosion in the first quarter of 2015,contracting by 17.6% year-on-year. Our Country Risk team forecasts a recession of 7.2% in 2015 andgrowth of 0.6% in 2016. Like in 2014, recession in 2015 will be driven by the depreciation of the hryvniaand major trade disruption due to the risk of a military escalation with Russia, which remains high despitethe ceasefire signed on February 12. Soaring inflation, substantially tighter government spending,diminished purchasing power and extremely tight credit conditions will also contribute to the dismaleconomic outlook. We forecast a sharp rise in food consumption in Ukraine in local currency terms, but thishas been heavily impacted by inflation and currency depreciation.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2015 total food consumption sales growth: +35.2%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to2019: +12.6%.
- 2015 per capita food consumption sales growth: +36.1%; CAGR to 2019: +13.3%.
- 2015 alcoholic drinks value sales growth: +3.7%; CAGR to 2019: +9.2%.
- 2015 soft drinks value sales growth: +41.7%; CAGR to 2019: +14.6%.
- 2015 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales growth: +46.7%; CAGR to 2019: +15.7%.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Food 9
Drink 11
Mass Grocery Retail 13
Industry Forecast 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Food 18
Food Consumption 18
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 19
Confectionery 19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 20
Prepared Food 21
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Ukraine 2012-2019) 21
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Ukraine 2012-2019) 22
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 23
Dairy 23
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 24
Drink 27
Alcoholic Drinks 27
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 29
Soft Drinks 30
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 31
Hot Drinks 33
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 34
Mass Grocery Retail 36
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 39
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) 39
Trade 40
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 41
Macroeconomic Forecast 42
Economic Analysis 42
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown 43
Risks To Outlook 46
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Ukraine 2012-2019) 47
Industry Risk Reward Index 48
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Index 48
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Q415 50
Ukraine Risk/Reward Index 53
Market Overview 54
Food 54
Food Processing 54
Confectionery 56
Trade 57
Agriculture 58
Drink 58
Alcoholic Drinks 58
Soft Drinks 60
Hot Drinks 61
Mass Grocery Retail 62
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Ukraine 2006-2010) 66
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Ukraine 2006-2010) 66
Industry Trends And Developments 67
Food 67
Key Industry Trends And Developments 67
Drink 70
Key Industry Trends And Developments 70
Mass Grocery Retail 75
Key Industry Trends And Developments 75
Competitive Landscape 79
Table: Key Players In Ukraine's Food Sector 79
Table: Key Players In Ukraine's Drink Sector 80
Table: Key Players In Ukraine's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 81
Company Profile 83
Ukrproduct 83
Myronivsky Hliboproduct (MHP) 86
Danone-Unimilk (Halakton) 89
Roshen 91
Konti 94
Astarta-Kyiv 96
Sun InBev Ukraine 98
Carlsberg Ukraine 100
Obolon 102
Odessa Champagne Factory 105
Nemiroff 107
Fozzy Group 109
Billa 112
ATB Market 114
Auchan 116
Global Industry Overview 118
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry 121
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios 129
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup 134
Demographic Forecast 136
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 137
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 137
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 138
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 138
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 139
Glossary 141
Food and Drink 141
Mass Grocery Retail 141
Methodology 143
Industry Forecast Methodology 143
Sector-Specific Methodology 144
Sources 144
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 145
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 146
Table: Weighting 147

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