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Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 118 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our downbeat outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector despite vast belowgroundpotential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PdVSA. We expect Venezuelato underperform, given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive politicalinterference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financialsituation of PdVSA. Moreover, sustained weakness in global oil prices will deteriorate production growthprospects as PdVSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capexfunds.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- We maintain our downbeat crude production forecast for 2016 this quarter to a contraction of 5.4% y-oyamid sustained weakness in crude oil markets. This will negatively impact available investment inVenezuela's upstream sector as the government contends with its sizeable public sector spending plans.

- Crude production declines accelerated over H116, with OPEC data showing production falling to 2.37mnb/d in May, a 14.4% decline over the past year. Secondary sources report that output fell to 2.19mn b/d,the first time production fell below 2.2mn b/d in over 20 years.

- President Nicolas Maduro announced an increase in the country's subsidised fuel prices for the first timein two decades on February 17, with prices taking effect on the 19th. Heavily discounted fuel has longbeen a key tenant of the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) party, many of whosemembers believe near free fuel to be an innate right of the Venezuelan people. This historic reformunderscores the extent to which government debt has become unsustainable under the existing fiscalregime as oil prices remain at historic lows.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Venezuela - Key Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 28
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 28
Upstream Production - Gas 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 32
Refining 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 38
Refined Fuels Consumption 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025) 41
Gas Consumption 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019) 44
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025) 44
Trade - Oil 45
Crude Oil: Latest Updates 45
Crude Oil: Structural Trends 45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2020) 49
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 50
Refined Products: Latest Updates 50
Refined Products: Structural Trends 50
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019) 53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 54
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 55
Latest Updates 55
Structural Trends 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019) 58
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 58
Industry Risk/Reward Index 59
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 59
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 59
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings 60
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 61
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 62
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit 64
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 66
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index 67
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview 67
Downstream Index - Overview 68
Market Overview 69
Venezuela Energy Market Overview 69
State Role 69
Licensing And Regulation 70
Government Policy 70
International Energy Relations 71
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 77
Oil Refineries 77
Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela 77
Oil Pipelines 80
LNG Terminals 81
Gas Pipelines 81
Competitive Landscape 83
Competitive Landscape Summary 83
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil and Gas Sector 85
Table: Key Upstream Players 85
Table: Key Downstream Player 86
Company Profile 87
PDVSA 87
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela 88
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 88
Chevron 90
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela 91
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 91
Repsol Venezuela 93
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela 94
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 94
Total Venezuela 96
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela 97
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 97
Regional Overview 98
Latin America Overview 98
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 109
Glossary 111
Table: Glossary Of Terms 111
Methodology 113
Industry Forecast Methodology 113
Source 115
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 115
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 117
Table: Weighting 118

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