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  4. > United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 99 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:

We have revised up our 2016/17 corn and soybean production forecasts due to exceptional weather during the growing season. Livestock will see some mild improvement in production growth owing to the poultry and beef sectors. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybean among the grains complex. We believe grains production will generally stagnate due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices. A possible election victory by Donald Trump presents moderate-to-strong downside risks to our production and consumption forecasts. Key Trends

- Beef production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 8.2% to 11.7mn tonnes. Production will improve over our forecast period due to heavier animal weights and as the sector's rebuilding phase is largely complete.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 9.3% to 23.3mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest poultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

- Corn production growth to 2019/20: 11% to 383.2mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow over the next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of genetically modified seeds) are waning. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.

Table Of Contents

United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: United States - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: United States - Grains Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 13
Table: United States - Grains Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 14
Dairy Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: United States - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: United States - Dairy Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 18
Soybean Outlook 20
Latest Updates 20
Table: United States - Soybean Production and Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: United States - Soybean Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 23
Sugar Outlook 24
Latest Updates 24
Table: United States - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Structural Trends 25
Table: United States - Sugar Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 26
Livestock Outlook 27
Latest Updates 27
Table: United States - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 27
Table: Risks To Outlook 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: United States - Beef, Pork and Poultry Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 31
Cotton Outlook 32
Latest Updates 32
Table: United States - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 32
Table: Risks To Outlook 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: United States - Cotton Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 37
Featured Analysis 38
Agriculture Election Primer Part 1: Issues And Candidate Positions 38
Table: US Election Primer: Agricultural Issues And Candidates' Positions 38
Agriculture Election Primer Part 2: Key Implications 51
Commodities Price Analysis 58
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 58
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 58
Upstream Analysis 60
Americas GM Outlook 60
Americas Machinery Outlook 68
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 71
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 75
Downstream Analysis 82
Food 82
Latest Updates 82
Structural Trends 83
Table: Food Sales (United States 2013-2020) 84
Regional Overview 86
Six Key Themes For The Americas Agribusiness 86
Competitive Landscape 92
Table: United States Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 92
Demographic Forecast 93
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025) 94
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025) 94
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025) 95
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025) 95
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025) 96
Methodology 98
Industry Forecast Methodology 98
Sector-Specific Methodology 99

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