Argentina Agribusiness Report Q4 2014

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 98 pages

BMI View:
With a deteriorating economic environment, the Argentine grain sector will continued play centre stage over the medium term. With foreign reserves under pressure, grain exports (particularly soybean) will remain vital, but there is increasing evidence of hoarding, which could lead to clashes with the government over policy. Nonetheless, soybean will remain the pre-eminent crop in Argentina over the long term, and we expect the poultry production to show the most promise within the livestock complex. We see potential for a mild rebound in beef production, as sector fundamentals remain challenging despite a significant decrease in grain prices. The country's dairy sector shows relative promise, due to relatively high retail dairy prices and investment into the sector.

Key Trends
- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 3% to 25.7mn tonnes. Our revised growth projections stem from lower average corn prices in coming years along with more substitution to soybean plantings.
- Soybean production growth to 2017/18: 5% to 52.7mn tonnes. Growth will come from increasing export demand for soybeans along with more value-added products such as soybean oil. Soybean crops are also generally less capital-intensive than corn crops due to lower input costs.

Table Of Contents

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast .. 14
Sugar Outlook . 14
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . 15
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . 15
Livestock Outlook .. 16
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 17
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 18
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . . 18
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 19
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 20
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . . 20
Soybean Outlook 21
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 22
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 23
Dairy Outlook . 23
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 25
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) 25
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . . 25
Table: Argentina Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 26
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 28
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) 28
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . . 28
Table: Argentina Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . . 29
Grains Outlook .. 30
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) 31
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 31
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) 31
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) 33
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 34
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) 34
Commodities Price Analysis 36
Monthly Grains Strategy 36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts . . 44
Monthly Softs Strategy 44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts . . 53
Upstream Analysis 55
Americas Machinery Outlook 55
Americas GM Outlook 61
Americas Fertiliser Outlook .. 67
Downstream Analysis . 72
Food . 72
Food Consumption .. 72
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2011-2018) 73
Canned Food 73
Confectionery 74
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2011-2018) 75
Oils and Fats .. 75
Dairy . 76
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2018) 76
Drink 78
Hot Drinks . 78
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2018) 79
Alcoholic Drinks .. 80
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2018) . 81
Soft Drinks 82
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2018) . . . 83
Mass Grocery Retail . 84
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2018) 85
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type . . . 85
Regional Overview 86
Competitive Landscape . 92
Table: Key Agribusiness Companies . . . 92
Demographic Forecast .. 93
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 94
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 95
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 96
Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020 . . 96
Methodology . 97
Industry Forecast Methodology . 97
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 98

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