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  5. > Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View: We retain our generally positive outlook for the Mexican agricultural sector in our latest Q4 2016 report update. We have made some minor forecast revisions this quarter to account or production variations. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years, but we see positive trends in domestic consumption and production in the dairy and livestock sector. Grains will also begin to recover and post a generally upwards trend. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the severity of the roya rust that is negative impacting the coffee crops in the country. Mexican coffee production has seen consecutive years of declines and we have made further negative revisions based on the worsening rust problem. On the demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts
- We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 1.9% in 2015/16 to reach 25.0mn tonnes. Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates to 2020.
- We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal this year. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork, whereas higher costs will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.

Table Of Contents

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Livestock Outlook 11
Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption and Trade Outlook 12
Table: Risks to Outlook 13
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 14
Sugar Outlook 16
Table: Mexico - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks to Outlook 17
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020) 19
Coffee Outlook 20
Table: Mexico Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks to Outlook 21
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020) 22
Dairy Outlook 23
Table: Mexico Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks to Outlook 24
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 26
Grains Outlook 27
Table: Mexico Production and Consumption Outlook 28
Table: Risks to Outlook 29
Table: Grain Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 31
Commodities Price Analysis 32
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 32
Upstream Analysis 34
Americas Machinery Outlook 34
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 37
Americas GM Outlook 41
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 48
Downstream Analysis 56
Food 56
Latest Updates 56
Structural Trends 57
Table: Food Sales (Mexico 2013-2020) 58
Regional Overview 61
Competitive Landscape 67
Table: Mexico Competitive Landscape 67
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025) 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Sector-Specific Methodology 74

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