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  3. > New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand throughout the medium-tolong term. This will be supportive for the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity. However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due to low prices on the international market, as well as herd rebuilding. We believe prices will pick up again later in 2017.

Key Forecasts
- Milk production growth to 2019/20: 4.6% to 22.9mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.
- Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 15.4% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.3%, down from 3.0% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2016 and 2020.

Table Of Contents

New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Dairy Outlook 9
Latest Updates 9
Table: New Zealand - Liquid Milk Production and Consumption Outlook 9
Structural Trends 9
Table: Milk Products Production and Consumption (New Zealand 2012-2020) 11
Commodities Price Analysis 13
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 13
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 13
Upstream Analysis 15
Americas GM Outlook 15
Americas Machinery Outlook 22
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 25
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 29
Regional Overview 37
Demographic Forecast 43
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025) 44
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025) 44
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025) 45
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025) 45
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025) 46
Methodology 48
Industry Forecast Methodology 48
Sector-Specific Methodology 49

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