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  3. > Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2015

Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 97 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Milk prices have remained low into H215, but production has increased regardless as dairyfarmers take advantage of the end of the quota scheme. The Polish government is lobbying for EU supporton behalf of the dairy industry, but in the long run it will take exploitation of overseas markets to secure thefuture wellbeing of the sub-sector. Grain yields will fall sharply on the back of this summer's drought, butour longer term view is for improved farming practices to continue to grow output per hectare. Thelivestock segment is adjusting to the fallout from Russian sanctions and the outbreak of African swine fever.We are now confident that pork and poultry producers will enjoy export-led growth, although low pricesare a concern for pig farmers.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 5.3% to 10.0mn tonnes. Expansion in output will be relativelysluggish albeit coming from a high base.

- Pork consumption growth to 2019: 8.8% to 1.8mn tonnes. Demand for pork will grow in response tolower prices.

- 2015 real GDP growth: 3.5% (down from an estimated 3.6% in 2014; forecast to grow by an average of4.0% annually 2015-2019).

Table Of Contents

Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Grains Outlook 14
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 15
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 15
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 16
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 18
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 18
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 19
Dairy Outlook 20
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 21
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 21
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 22
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 24
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 24
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 24
Livestock Outlook 26
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 27
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 27
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 28
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 30
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 30
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 31
Sugar Outlook 32
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 32
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Poland 2009-2014) 34
Commodities Price Analysis 35
Commodity Strategy 35
Monthly Grains Update 40
Upstream Analysis 44
Europe Machinery Outlook 44
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 46
Europe GM Outlook 49
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 55
Downstream Analysis 61
Food 61
Food Consumption 61
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Poland 2012-2019) 62
Confectionery 62
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Poland 2012-2019) 63
Meat 64
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Poland 2012-2019) 65
Fish 65
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Poland 2012-2019) 66
Oils And Fats 66
Table: Oils And Fats Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Poland 2012-2019) 67
Frozen Fruit and Vegetables 68
Pasta 68
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Poland 2012-2019) 68
Snack Foods 69
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Poland 2012-2019) 69
Dairy 71
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Poland 2012-2019) 72
Drink 74
Alcoholic Drinks 74
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Poland 2012-2019) 75
Soft Drinks 76
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Poland 2012-2019) 77
Hot Drinks 78
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Poland 2012-2019) 79
Mass Grocery Retail 80
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Poland 2012-2019) 81
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type (as % of total) 82
Regional Overview 83
Competitive Landscape 90
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 90
Demographic Forecast 91
Demographic Outlook 91
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025) 92
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025) 92
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025) 94
Methodology 96
Industry Forecast Methodology 96
Sector-Specific Methodology 97

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