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Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View:

Milk production in Poland has increased despite low prices, as dairy farmers take advantage of the end of the EU quota scheme. While the Polish government lobbies for EU support on behalf of the dairy industry, the exploitation of overseas markets is necessary to secure the future well being of the sub-sector. Wheat yields will suffer, on the back of challenging weather conditions, but our longer-term view is for improved farming practices to continue boosting output per hectare. The livestock segment has adjusted well to the fallout from Russian sanctions and the outbreak of African swine fever and we are confident that producers will enjoy export-led growth, supported by domestic and foreign investment, although low prices remain a concern for pig farmers. The sugar segment will struggle to increase yields sufficiently to thrive in the post-quota environment.



Key BMI Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -8.3 % to 10.7mn tonnes. Negative output growth is attributable to high base effects and low prices. We nevertheless expect to see improvements in yields.

- Pork consumption growth to 2020: 3.6% to 1.8mn tonnes. As pork is a staple of the Polish diet, demand is quite inelastic, but rising incomes and low prices early in the forecast period will support modest demand growth.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 3.7%, up from 3.6% in 2015.

- 2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 0.6% y-o-y, up from -1.0% in 2015.

Table Of Contents

Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Poland - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 13
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 14
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 14
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 15
Dairy Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Poland - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 19
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 20
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 20
Livestock Outlook 21
Latest Updates 21
Table: Poland - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 25
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 25
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 25
Sugar Outlook 26
Latest Updates 26
Table: Poland - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 26
Table: Risks To Outlook 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Poland 2012-2020) 28
Commodities Price Analysis 29
Global - Commodities Performance And Forecasts 29
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 29
Upstream Analysis 31
Europe GM Outlook 31
Europe Machinery Outlook 38
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 41
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 44
Downstream Analysis 50
Food 50
Latest Updates 50
Structural Trends 51
Table: Food Sales (Poland 2013-2020) 52
Regional Overview 54
Europe Regional Overview 54
Competitive Landscape 60
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 60
Demographic Forecast 61
Demographic Outlook 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025) 64
Methodology 66
Industry Forecast Methodology 66
Sector-Specific Methodology 67

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