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Namibia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 38 pages

Core Views
Strong domestic demand and accelerating investment in the mining sector will see economic growth in Namibia average a respectable 4.5% annually over the next five years. Over the near term, export performance will continue to be weighed down by weak global demand and soft commodity prices.

We expect the ruling South West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) to secure a comfortable victory in November's general elections, with the party likely to maintain its broadly pro-business economic agenda in the years ahead. A weak and under-funded opposition will preclude anything other than a minor swing away from the ruling party.

Our broad outlook for Namibia's current account over the next few years remains relatively unchanged. We maintain that the country will sustain a sizeable current account shortfall over our 2014-2018 forecast period as demand for imports associated with new mining projects more than offsets a sluggish recovery in demand for key mineral exports.

Table Of Contents

Namibia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views..5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook. 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics.. 8
Constitutional Controversy Will Not Derail SWAPO Juggernaut8
The passing of a series of constitutional amendments are an attempt by the ruling party to strengthen the executive powers of the
president and will increase political tensions ahead of Namibia's general elections on November 29. Despite this we maintain our
view that ruling SWAPO candidate Hage Geingob will become the new president and the party will retain its two-thirds majority in the
National Assembly.
TABLE: Political Over view .8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Stability Likely To Prevail Over The Coming Decade..9
While Namibia's enormous income inequality poses some risks to political stability, we believe the population is likely to continue
supporting the SWAPO government for the next 10 years, ensuring broad political stability and continuity.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings... 13
Economic Activity... 14
Growth Solid, But Mining-Centric...14
Strong domestic demand and accelerating investment in the mining sector will see economic growth in Namibia average a respectable
4.5% annually over the next five years. Over the near term, export performance will continue to be weighed down by weak global
demand and soft commodity prices.
TABLE: Economic Activity..14
Balance Of Payments.. 15
Current Account Deficit To Remain Wide But Stable15
Namibia will sustain a sizeable current account deficit in the range of 5.0-7.0% of GDP over the next five years, due primarily to a
structural trade deficit. Robust import demand and sluggish growth in mineral exports will continue to put pressure on the trade account
over the coming months.
TABLE: Current Account...16
Monetary Policy... 17
Interest Rates On The Rise..17
The Bank of Namibia will look to further tighten monetary policy over the coming quarters in a bid to apply the brakes to household credit
growth and remain in step with the South African Reserve Bank.
TABLE: Monetary Policy17
Fiscal Policy. 18
Fiscal Deficit To Widen In FY2014/15.18
Namibia's fiscal balance will deteriorate modestly through FY2014/15 to reach the equivalent of 4.3% of GDP. An expansionary budget
and election-related pressures will keep spending high, while we are less optimistic than the authorities in our outlook for the economy,
and by extension revenue generation, over the coming quarters.
TABLE: Fiscal Policy18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast... 21
The Namibian Economy To 2023... 21
Resource-Powered Growth.21
Thanks to the country's strong primary sector, we expect growth to prove relatively robust in the long run, averaging around 4.5
%annually over 2014-2023. With a stable political environment, the main risks are the limited size of the domestic market, rising income
inequality and global demand for the country's primary exports.
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts21
Chapter 4: Business Environment. 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings.. 23
Business Environment Outlook. 24
Institutions . 24
TABLE: BMI BUSINES AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS24
Table : BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING.25
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY..26
TABLE: ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS27
Market Orientation... 28
Table: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS.28
Infrastructure... 30
Operational Risk.. 30
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 31
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare... 31
TABLE: Pharmaceutical Sales , Historical Data And Forecasts 32
TABLE: Healthcare Expenditure Trends , Historical Data And Forecasts 32
TABLE: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends , Historical Data And Forecasts . 32
TABLE: Pri vate Healthcare Expenditure Trends , Historical Data and Forecasts . 33
Other Key Sectors... 35
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators.35
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators35
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators...35
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators...36
TABLE: Freight Key Indicators 36
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 37
Global Outlook. 37
Eurozone Downgrade On Poor Q214..37
Table: Global Assumptions.37
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %...38
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %. 38
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %..39

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