1. Market Research
  2. > Telecom
  3. > Mobile Services Market Trends
  4. > Romania Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

Romania Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 50 pages

Core Views
Romania’s economic recovery will outperform most regional peers and move onto a firmer footing over the coming quarters, with household consumption set to compensate for net exports’ lower contribution to growth. While recovering imports and outgoing profit repatriation will widen the current account deficit, this will not pose a threat to the country’s ongoing recovery. The National Bank of Romania (NBR) is likely to cut the policy rate to at least 3.00% by year-end, in an attempt to boost inflation and stave of excessive leu strength.

Romania’s government are likely to ease up on the pace of fiscal austerity in 2014 and 2015, but will remain within EU budget and public debt targets. We expect Prime Minister Victor Ponta to win the November Presidential elections. This would be good for political stability, as the ruling PSD-led coalition would control both parliament and the presidency.

Major Forecast Changes
We have revised-down our forecasts for the policy rate to 3.00% by end-2014, from 3.25% previously due to lower than expected food price inflation.

Table Of Contents

Romania Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views..5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook. 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics . 8
Presidential Elections: Ponta Win Would Boost Stability...8
Victor Ponta's likely victory in the November Presidential elections will be good for political stability in Romania. Policy certainty will
improve as the ruling PSD would hold parliament and the presidency, while a more relaxed fiscal policy will pose limited risks given
Romania's solid debt dynamics.
Table: Political overview..8
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 10
Balancing The Demands Of West/East Influence..10
The strength and quality of Romania's political institutions fall short relative to much of Europe, implying significant challenges ahead
despite the progress made since the fall of communism.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings... 13
Economic Activity .. 14
Recovery To Benefit From Consumer and Government Spending..14
Romanian real GDP growth will outperform most of Central Europe in 2014 and 2015, despite a recent slowdown. The economy will
become less reliant on exports for growth as domestic consumption picks up, supported by the government spending more.
Table: Economic Activity..14
Balance Of Payments . 16
Current Account: Limited Threats From Wider Deficits16
Although recovering imports and pro fit repatriation will widen the current account deficit in 2014 and 2015, this will not pose a threat to
the county's ongoing recovery.
Table: Balance Of Payments...16
Fiscal Policy 18
Limited Risks From Planned Tax Cut.18
Romania's budget deficit will pose few risks over the next few years. In fact, a low public debt load will provide the government scope to
relax the pace of fiscal consolidation while remaining within EU deficit targets.
Table: Fiscal Policy18
Monetary Policy .. 19
Few Reasons Not To Cut.19
Declining food prices will keep consumer price inflation below the Romanian central bank's target, prompting the bank to cut the policy
rate to 3.00% by end-2014.
Table: Monetary Policy19
Exchange Rate Policy 21
RON: Long-Term Depreciation On The Cards...21
While the Romanian leu will remain one of the more resilient CEE currencies over the coming months, we expect the unit to remain on a
depreciatory trajectory over the long term.
Table: Currency Forecast..21
Banking Sector ... 22
Sector Stronger For Parent Bank Deleveraging22
Romanian banks have been resilient to parent bank deleveraging, helping the sector's recovery onto a firmer footing in 2014 and 2015.
Recovering loans will help profits, while healthy capital buffers will weather the sector from any unforeseen funding requirements.
Labour Market . 24
Strong Wage Growth No Cause For Concern24
Although a tightening labour market and strong economic growth will continue supporting Romanian wage growth over the coming
quarters, we do not believe this will pose a threat to labour market or export competitiveness.
Regional Debt Policy .. 25
Government Spending Unable To Prevent Slowdown...25
Government spending will play a smaller role driving growth in emerging Europe over the coming years. Central European governments
will remain committed to meeting EU fiscal targets, despite low debt loads.
Table: BMI Emerging Europe Government Spending.25
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast... 29
The Romanian Economy To 2023... 29
Q4 2014..29
While Romania will struggle to return to pre-crisis growth rates over the next decade, we believe the country's economy has significant
regional potential.
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts29
Chapter 4: Business Environment. 31
SWOT Analysis 31
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings.. 31
Business Environment Outlook. 32
Institutions... 32
TABLE: BMI BUSINES AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS32
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING.33
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY..34
Infrastructure... 35
TABLE: ANUAL FDI INFLOWS35
TABLE: Top Export Destinations ...36
Operational Risk.. 37
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 39
Telecommunications... 39
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data and Forecasts 40
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data and Forecasts 40
Shipping... 41
Table: Major Ports Data...42
Other Key Sectors... 47
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators.47
Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators47
Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators...47
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators...48
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators.48
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators...48
Table: Freight Key Indicators48
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 49
Global Outlook. 49
Eurozone Downgrade On Poor Q214..49
Table: Global Assumptions.49
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %...50
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %. 50
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %..51

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
The Multi-play services in Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2020

The Multi-play services in Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2020

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

"A second, but weaker, wave of growth in the number of fixed–mobile subscriptions is set to come from countries other than France, Portugal and Spain." Analysys Mason report on multi-play services in ...

The Communication services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

The Communication services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • July 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in the Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) region, including country views for China, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. It ...

The Communication services in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

The Communication services in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • July 2016
  • by Analysys Mason

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, including country views for Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates ...


ref:plp2014

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.