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Intellinews - Croatia Country Report - April 2013

  • June 2013
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 28 pages

The European Commission has confirmed the IMF estimate that Croatia will plunge into a fourth year of recession in 2013. Moreover, the Commission sees the country’s economy shrinking 1% this year versus only 0.2% contraction projected by the IMF. The EBRD has also worsened its forecast for the Croatian GDP, seeing it down 0.3% compared to a previously expected rise of 0.8%.

The negative estimates come in the eve of Croatia joining the EU on July 1, which indicates the membership will not have an immediate miracle impact on the domestic economy – though all current forecasts hint the GDP will return to the positive area already in 2014.

After selling a USD 1.5bn Eurobond with a 5.5% coupon in March, the government has said it plans to issue domestic debt worth EUR 900mn in early July and take a EUR 668mn loan in the last quarter of the year in order to plug fiscal gap.

The budget deficit already reached 65% of the annual plan at end-April and will most likely miss the government’s target of 3% of GDP for 2013. Still, although the government already revised once its budget plan for the year, it still expects an economic growth of 0.7% (down from initially projected 1.8%) – and considering the GDP drop expectations of the international lenders, another budget revision might take place further in the year.

Consumer price inflation slowed down to 3.3% in April from 3.9% a month earlier, reaching its lowest level in the past twelve months. Retail sales fell by a real 2.1% on the year in March after declining 3.3% a month earlier as domestic demand weakens amid decreasing real wages and climbing unemployment. Industrial production rose 4.1% on the year in March after dropping by the same percentage in February. The first-quarter production thus registered a small gain of 1.1% y/y.

IntelliNews calculations show the end-April unemployment rate stood at nearly 21%, up 1.8pps on the year. Moreover, the average net wages fell by a real 3.2% y/y in February, adding to the 3.8% drop from a month earlier. Labour productivity, however, went up 6.9% in the first three month of 2013 after dropping 1.3% in 2012.

Table Of Contents

Intellinews - Croatia Country Report - April 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

REAL SECTOR
1. GDP, Inflation
2. Industry and Trade
3. Labour Market
4. Tourism

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION

EXTERNAL SECTORCS

STRUCTURAL REFORMS

POLITICS



List of Figures

Figure 1 - Croatia inflation
Figure 2 - Croatia unemployment rate
Figure 3 - Croatia net salary
Figure 4 - Croatia tourism sector
Figure 5 - Croatia FX reserves
Figure 6 - Croatia bank loans
Figure 7 - Croatia bank deposits
Figure 8 - Croat bank assets
Figure 9 - Croatia lending interest rates
Figure 10 - Croatia kuna deposit interest rates
Figure 11 - Croatia gross foreign debt

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