China Mining Industry Update Quarter 4 2011

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 106 pages

China's mining market value looks set to post strong average annual growth of 9.1% in real terms from 2011 to 2015 to reach US Dollar 606bn at the end of the period. This comes as market -wide energy efficiency and consolidation measures continue in 2011 as part of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), further improving efficiency and boosting productivity across the market . Growth over the projection period will be led by bauxite, copper, tin and gold production. We expect the market to become even more consolidated as the government implements the Five-Year Plan.
We also expect increasing tax burdens on the Chinese mining market as part of the plan. Significant progress has been made in the crackdown on illegal mining, with the government pledging to do more to improve safety. There is an increasing emphasis on the negative environmental impact of mining activities, with the imposition of an environmental tax on certain markets and the introduction of a 'green standard' for the rare earths segment to curb emissions.
The government suspended new prospecting and mining licences for the coal and rare earths segments to prevent over-mining. Additionally, the Institute of Geological Environmental Monitoring plans to build 10 state-level geological environment monitoring demonstration zones in the north-east, north-west, north and Yangtze River regions by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan.
Key domestic players include Zijin Mining, Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, Jiangxi Copper, Datong Coal and Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals, as well as the state-owned entities Aluminium Corp of China (Chinalco) and China Shenhua Energy. Foreign industry players with operations in China include Canadian junior gold explorers Eldorado Gold and Continental Minerals, Australian mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, and Brazilian diversified miner Vale.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary ... 5
Industry SWOT Analysis .... 6
China Political Environment and Risk Analysis .... 6
China Economic Environment and Risk Analysis .. 7
China Business Environment SWOT .... 8
World Mining Outlook ...... 9
Political Risks Weigh On Segment ... 9
Data : Recent Government Involvement In Mining . 10
Data : Latest Coal Developments ...... 11
Data : Other Mining Developments ... 12
Industry Trends And Developments ... 13
Strong Production Growth Over Projection Period .. 13
Further Consolidation: Steel And Coal ..... 14
Data : Key Expansion Plans 15
Data : China Mining Market Value, from 2007 to 2015 .... 16

Market Projection ..... 17
Nickel: Reliance On Imports To Remain . 17
Data : Main Nickel Projects 18
Data : Chinese Nickel Projects Overseas . 18
Data : Nickel Production, from 2008 to 2015 19
Tin: Yunnan To Drive Output Growth .... 20
Data : Key Tin Projects 21
Data : Tin Production, from 2008 to 2015 ..... 21
Gold: Outlook For Gold Prices Poses Upside Risk To Production Projections . 22
Data : Gold Production, from 2008 to 2015 .. 25
Iron Ore: Upward Revision To Projection 26
Data : Iron Ore Production, from 2007 to 2015 ... 30
Copper: Upward Revision For 2011, Healthy Growth Ahead ... 31
Data : Key Expansion Plans 31
Data : Copper Mine Production, from 2008 to 2015 ... 32
Bauxite: Sustained Healthy Growth Over Projection Period . 33
Data : Bauxite Production, from 2007 to 2015 ..... 34
Coal: Domestic Pollution Controls To Increase Imports .... 35
Data : New Coal Projects .... 36
Data : Coal Production, from 2008 to 2015 .. 36
Regulatory Development . 37

Environment Overview ... 39
Asia Mining Business Environment Ratings ..... 39
Data : Asia Business Environment Ratings ...... 39
Political Outlook 42
Domestic Politics ... 42
Long-Term Political Outlook ...... 45
Economic Outlook .... 50
China - Economic Activity ... 52

Competition Overview .. 53
Fragmented And Inefficient . 53
Poor Safety Record But Situation Improving ... 53
Major Firms .. 53
Data : Key Domestic Players ...... 54
Company Monitor ..... 55
Jiangxi Copper ...... 55
Shandong Gold ...... 57
China Shenhua Energy . 59
Aluminium Corporation of China (Chinalco) .. 61
World Assumptions, Q4 2011 ...... 63
Data : World Assumptions, from 2009 to 2015 .... 64
Data : World And Regional Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, from 2010 to 2013 (% change y-o-y) . 64
Data : Developed Industry Exchange Rates, from 2010 to 2013 (average) 65
Data : Emerging Industry Exchange Rates, from 2010 to 2013 (average) . 65
Developed States .. 66
Data : Developed States’ Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, from 2010 to 2013 (% change y-o-y) ...... 66
Emerging Industries 67
Data : Emerging Industries’ Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Projections, from 2010 to 2013 (% change y-o-y) . 68
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data .. 69

Section I : Population .. 69
Data : Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 .... 69
Data : Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ... 70

Section II : Education And Healthcare ..... 70
Data : Education, from 2002 to 2005 ..... 70
Data : Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ...... 70

Section III : Labour Industry And Spending Power ... 71
Data : Employment Indicators, from 2001 to 2006 ...... 71
Data : Consumer Expenditure, from 2000 to 2012 (US$) ... 71
Data : Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, from 2005 to 2012 .. 72

Environment Overview Ratings Methodology .. 73
Data : Mining Business Environment Indicators .... 74
Data : Weighting Of Components ...... 75

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