China Mining Report Q4 2014

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 106 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
More Chinese miners will come under duress from the economic slowdown in China over the coming years. Falling mineral prices and Beijing's gradual embrace of free market economics will threaten the survival of many small and private mining operations. We believe the economic slowdown in China will turn a decade-long mining boom into bust for many domestic miners. With cost containment being the key lever in the face of falling commodity prices, Chinese miners will be forced to recalibrate their investment approach over the coming quarters. While state-owned miners are generally more insulated from the weakness in mineral prices, Beijing's gradual embrace of free market economics should pave the way for some much needed consolidation and restructuring in the mining industry.

Table Of Contents

China Mining Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT .. 11
Industry Forecast .. 12
Bauxite: Seaborne Reliance Not Going Away 12
Growth To Slow, But Production Won't Collapse . 13
Seaborne Reliance To Persist ... 13
Risk To Outlook . 14
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (China 2010-2018).......................15
Coal: Energy Concerns To Support Growth .. 15
Efficiency Gains With Consolidation Push .. 18
Table: China - Select Coal Mining Projects........................... 19
Taming Pollution ... 19
Table: Coal Production Forecasts (China 2010-2018)........................ 20
Copper: Digging To Continue On Domestic Shortfall . 21
Table: China - Select Copper Projects............................ . 22
Table: Copper Production Forecast (China 2010-2018).......................23
Gold: More Golden Deals Abroad .. 23
Table: China - Largest Gold Projects............................ . . 25
Table: Gold Production Forecast (China 2010-2018)........................ . 29
Iron Ore: Consolidation Looms .. 29
Table: China - Select Iron Ore Projects............................ 31
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (China 2010-2018)....................... . 36
Lead: Autos Sector To Lend Support ... 37
Table: China - Select Lead Mining Projects........................... 38
Table: Lead Production Forecast (China 2010-2018)........................ . 39
Nickel: Growth To Cool As China Rebalances ... 39
Table: China - Select Nickel Projects............................41
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (China 2010-2018)........................ 41
Tin: Yunnan Tin Dictates, But Risks Lurk . 41
Risks To Outlook 43
Table: Tin Production Forecast (China 2010-2018)........................44
Zinc: Mining Under Pressure . 44
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (China 2010-2018)........................ . . 47
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 48
Risk/Reward Ratings 48
Australia Leads, Frontier Markets To Remain Laggards 48
An Improving Regulatory Landscape . 49
Largest Quarterly Change In Laos 50
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index...........................51
Risk/Reward Ratings 52
Rewards ... 52
Industry Rewards ... 52
Country Rewards ... 52
Risks 53
Industry Risks 53
Country Risks 53
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (China 2012-2018)........................ . 54
Regulatory Development .. 55
Table: Political Overview...............................58
Competitive Landscape 59
Table: China - Key Financial Data For Select Listed Mining Companies................... . 60
Company Profile 61
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) 61
Company Overview 62
Latest Financial Results .. 62
Table: Supply Chain Analysis..............................64
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data............................. 65
China Shenhua Energy . 66
Table: Supply Chain Analysis..............................68
Table: Shenhua Energy - Key Financial Data.......................... . . 69
Jiangxi Copper 70
Table: Supply Chain Analysis..............................72
Table: Jiangxi Copper - Key Financial Data..........................73
Shandong Gold ... 74
Table: Supply Chain Analysis..............................76
Table: Shandong Gold - Key Financial Data..........................77
Regional Overview 78
Asia Overview . 78
Global Industry Overview .. 84
Capex Cutbacks To Yield Rewards 84
MandA Activity To Pick Up 85
High Grade Opportunities In Iron Ore ... 86
Shifting Centre Of Growth For Platinum 87
Chinese and Indian Outbound Mineral Investment To Gather Pace 88
Shake-Up For Global Rare Earths Industry . 89
Commodities Forecast . 91
Commodity Strategy . 91
Ferrous Metals: . 92
Iron Ore: Bounce Won't Last, Weakness In 2015 .. 92
Steel: Long Road To Price Recovery .. 93
Non-Ferrous Metals: .. 94
Aluminium: Elevated Prices In Coming Weeks . 94
Copper: Strength To Turn To Weakness By Q414 . 95
Lead: Price Bounce Underway . 96
Nickel: Prices To Cool In Coming Months .. 97
Tin: Market Tightness To Drive Prices Higher . 98
Zinc: Prices To Moderate By Q414 99
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts...................... . 101
Methodology 102
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 102
Sources .. 103
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology ... 104
Table: Weighting Of Indicators.............................. 106

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