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  4. > China Mining Report Q4 2015

China Mining Report Q4 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 103 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Chinese mining consolidation will continue over the coming quarters due to weak global
minerals prices and government supporting consolidation. In contrast, depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of domestic mines will further drive outward Chinese investment.

We expect China's mining sector to become increasingly consolidated in the coming quarters for the following reasons.

- First, weak mineral prices will price-out high-cost producers. We believe weak mineral prices will continue to pressure Chinese high-cost producing miners over the coming quarters. State-owned firms will generally be more insulated from weakness in commodity prices due to preferential access to capital.

Table Of Contents

China Mining Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Overseas Mining Investment To Continue, Despite Economic Slowdown 8
Industry Forecast 12
Bauxite: Growth To Cool, Dependency To Rise 12
Bauxite Growth To Slow 12
Imports: Growth In Short Term And Long Term 13
Risks To Production Outlook 15
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (China 2011-2019 15
China - Coal: Regulations To Result In Contraction 16
Environmental Regulation To Squeeze Miners 17
Government To Push Consolidation 19
Weak Margins To Subdue Growth 21
Table: China - Select Coal Mining Projects 21
Energy Production To Remain Coal Dominated 21
Table: Coal Production Forecasts (China 2012-2019) 23
China - Copper: Low Price To Provide Headwinds To Domestic Production 24
Table: China - Select Copper Projects 25
Table: Copper Production Forecast (China 2011-2019) 26
Gold: Five Precious Themes 27
Table: China - Overseas Gold Mining Deals 32
Table: Gold Production Forecast (China 2011-2019) 33
Iron Ore: Further Consolidation Ahead 34
Price Weakness To Hurt Miners 35
Small-Scale Miners To Come Under The Most Pressure 36
Strict Regulations To Increase Import Preference 37
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (China 2011-2019) 39
Nickel: Modest Domestic Growth, But Imports To See Further Upside 40
Further Consolidation 41
Table: China - Select Nickel Projects 42
Risks To Outlook 42
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (China 2011-2019) 43
Tin: Yunnan Tin To Drive Growth 44
Risks To Outlook 46
Table: Tin Production Forecast (China 2011-2019) 46
Lead: Growth To Stagnate 47
Table: China - Select Lead Mining Projects 48
Risks To Outlook 48
Table: Lead Production Forecast (China 2011-2019) 48
Zinc: Mining Under Pressure 49
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (China 2011-2019) 51
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 52
China Risk Reward Index 52
Rewards 52
Industry Rewards 52
Country Rewards 52
Risks 53
Industry Risks 53
Country Risks 54
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (China 2011-2019) 54
Asia Risk/Reward Index 55
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 59
Regulatory Development 60
Trade And Investment Risk Analysis 61
Commodities Forecast 65
Industrial Metals: Remaining Below-Consensus 65
Chinese Demand To Remain Weak Despite Stimulus 66
Tightening Market Balance To Support Price Recovery 67
Competitive Landscape 69
Majors Firms 69
Table: China - Key Financial Data For Select Listed Mining Companies 70
Company Profile 72
Global Company Strategy - Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q3 2015 72
Company Overview 74
Latest Financial Results 75
Table: Supply Chain Analysis 76
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data 77
Jiangxi Copper 78
Table: Supply Chain Analysis 80
Table: Jiangxi Copper - Key Financial Data 81
Shandong Gold 82
Table: Supply Chain Analysis 84
China Shenhua Energy 85
Table: Shenhua Energy - Supply Chain Analysis 87
Regional Overview 89
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production 89
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 90
Slowing Demand From China 91
Indonesian Ban To Remain In Place 92
Global Industry Overview 94
Global - Mining 2015 Key Themes Revisited 94
Table: Key Mining Themes For 2015 94
Theme: Mining Capital Expenditure Will Continue To Decline 94
Theme: US Dollar Strength 95
Iron Ore Consolidation and Majors Share To Increase 96
Asian Investment In Africa To Continue 97
2015's Standouts 98
Methodology 100
Industry Forecast Methodology 100
Sources 101
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 102
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 103

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