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United Kingdom Autos Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The UK's decision to exit the EU will lead to a fall in passenger car demand in 2016 and 2017through its negative impact on consumer and business confidence by raising economic uncertainty andthrough vehicle price inflation created by the resulting depreciation in the pound.

Key Views

- Prior to the UK's decision to exit the EU, the passenger car market had already become overheated withsales reaching record highs and an overreliance on purchases made on credit. The exit will now bringthese problems to a head in 2016 and 2017.

- Vehicle production forecast remains unchanged after Brexit as producers continue to gain from exportgrowth to recovering EU region over the next two years and as large capacity increases at Nissan andHonda Motor provide a lot of the support to growth.

- Despite our decision to maintain our current production forecast, from 2018 onwards risks to theproduction outlook are heavily weighted to the downside as trade rules governing the costs of exportingto the EU are renegotiated and imposed.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Autos Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Key Views 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 11
Latest Developments 11
Structural Trends - Core Scenario 11
Structural Trends - Upside Scenario 19
Structural Trends - Downside Scenario 23
Passenger Cars 27
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 27
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers 27
Key Players 28
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Brand, Units 28
Commercial Vehicles 29
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 29
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers 29
Key Players 30
Table: Light Commercial Vehicles Sales By Brand, Units 30
Table: Medium Duty Truck Sales*, Units 31
Table: Heavy Duty Truck* Sales By Brand, Units 32
Table: Bus Sales* By Brand, Units 32
Motorcycles 33
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 33
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers 33
Key Players 33
Table: Sales By Brand, February 33
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 35
Western Stability A Winner For Value-Added Production 35
Hungary A Potential Mover 36
Turkey On The Radar 36
Regional Overview 37
Western Europe 37
Table: Western Europe - Autos Production Investments 37
Spanish Competitiveness Comes With Risks 38
New Models Address Regional Demand 38
IIA Restart Will Be Slow 38
Demographic Forecast 40
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 41
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 41
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 42
Table: Population By Age Group (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 42
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 43
Methodology 45
Industry Forecasts 45
Sector-Specific Methodology 46
Sources 46
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 48

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