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Poland Metals Report Q4 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 55 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updatesThe economic recovery in Poland continues to gather momentum, with leading and coincident indicators - particularly retail sales and wage growth - pointing towards improvements in domestic demand in addition to the export-driven real GDP growth that arrived in the second half of 2013. The acceleration in euro area growth, particularly in key trade partners such as Germany will continue to drive forward Polish export growth - especially in the autos sector. Furthermore, the recovery in international trade will continue to feed-through into the labour market, resulting in positive employment gains as hiring improves.

Real GDP grew 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Poland in Q413. While the reading was slightly lower than consensus expectations for 2.9%, BMI had been cautioning for some time that market expectations for Polish growth had been turning slightly too exuberant, despite the positive outlook. Nonetheless, the economic outlook for Poland remains highly encouraging, and we recently revised up our growth forecasts for 2014 to 2.8%, from 2.6% previously. Looking further ahead, we are forecasting growth of 3.1% in 2015. Although we are optimistic about Poland's growth prospects, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects.

Table Of Contents

Poland Metals Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT .. 9
Metals SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery .. 11
Table: Steel Production and Consumption (Poland 2010-2018).................15
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Poland 2005-2012).................. . . 15
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate .. 16
Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption and Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise).......18
Regulatory Development ... 19
Table: Poland - Political Outlook....................... . . . 20
Commodities Forecast . 21
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast........................ 21
Short-Term Outlook ... 21
Core View . 22
Surplus Set To Slim ... 22
Production: Reining In Growth ... 23
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead ... 25
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months .... 27
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West .. 27
Risks To Price Outlook .... 28
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts........................ . . 29
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region and Product, USD/tonne (average)............... . . . 29
Commodity Strategy .... 31
Ferrous Metals: ... 31
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight . 31
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 32
Non-Ferrous Metals: . 34
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 34
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 .. 35
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens .. 36
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely .. 37
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals .. 38
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely ... 40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts.................. 42
Competitive Landscape 43
Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metal Producers.................... . . . 44
Company Profile .. 46
KGHM . 46
Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data....................... 48
ArcelorMittal ... 50
Company Overview ... 52
Company Strategy 52
Latest Financial Results .. 54
Company Details . 54
Financial Data .... 54
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data.....................54
Methodology ... 55
Cross Checks . 55

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