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Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 88 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delaysto a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions. Continued upstream investment isindicative of the market's untapped potential, but above-ground worries ranging from industrial action tounattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse decliningreserves and output.



The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:

- Our Country Risk team believes that outbreaks of violence across the Gabonese capital, Libreville, willnot be enough to unseat re-elected President Ali Bongo. Bongo's victory in the August 27 presidentialelection is unlikely to be overturned, and they expect the unrest following the official resultsannouncement, that has seen the burning of the parliament building and a raid on oppositionheadquarters, to calm in the coming days and weeks. Oil production should therefore not be impacted bythe events, unless massive strike actions take place, something that has already taken place in the pastwithin the industry.

- Gabon rejoined OPEC in June 2016, becoming the 14th and smallest member of the group in terms ofproduction.

- In October 2015, Gabon launched its 11th licensing round. The round offers five deepwater blocks in theGabon South basin: E12, E14, F12, F13 and G14. In March 2016, the licensing round was extended toallow for changes in the fiscal terms on offer. In our view, Gabon will need to show substantial flexibilityin its licensing in order to draw investment into its frontier deepwater and ultra-deepwater acreage.

- Shell reported in April 2016 that it is looking to divest its onshore assets in Gabon, worth aboutUSD700mn. Should a sale occur, this yields downside risk to our Gabon oil production forecast: Shell'sassets notably include the Rabi Kounga and Gamba fields. We will wait to see whether the fields are soldand to whom before updating our forecast.

Table Of Contents

Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Gabon Major Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2014-2019) 25
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2020-2025) 26
Upstream Production - Gas 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Gas Production (Gabon 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Production (Gabon 2020-2025) 29
Refining 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Gabon 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Gabon 2020-2025) 32
Refined Fuels Consumption 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Gabon 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Gabon 2020-2025) 38
Gas Consumption 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2020-2025) 40
Trade - Oil 41
Crude Oil 41
Latest Updates 41
Latest Updates 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2014-2020) 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2020-2025) 43
Refined Fuels 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2014-2019) 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2020-2025) 45
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 46
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 49
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 52
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 52
Gabon - Risk/Reward Index 55
Upstream Index 55
Downstream Index 55
Market Overview 56
Gabon Energy Market Overview 56
Regulatory Structure 56
Fiscal Regime 56
Table: Gabon Fiscal Regime 57
Licensing Regime 57
Table: Gabon Licensing Terms 58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 65
Oil Refineries 65
Gas Facilities 65
Competitive Landscape 67
Competitive Landscape Summary 67
Table: Key Players - Gabon Energy Sector 68
Company Profile 69
Addax Petroleum 69
Company Overview 69
Main Assets in Gabon 70
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Gabon 70
Regional Overview 71
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 71
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 80
Glossary 81
Table: Glossary Of Terms 81
Methodology 83
Industry Forecast Methodology 83
Source 85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 85
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 87
Table: Weighting 88

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