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Libya Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 134 pages

BMI View: Despite its vast reserves base, the outlook on the Libyan oil and gas sector is poor. Anescalation of fighting has brought a significant tranche of production offline, crippling exports. UNbrokeredpeace talks are seeking a resolution, but the deeply fractured nature of the political landscapecontinues to drag on progress. Continued insecurity, a low level of investment, poor reservoir managementand widespread infrastructural damage will all slow the pace of recovery. We see oil and gas productionremain depressed to below pre-Qadhafi levels across our 10-year forecast period.

The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:

- Libya's oil and gas reserves stood at an estimated at 48.0bn barrels (bbl) and 1.5trn cubic metres (tcm),respectively, at the start of 2015. However, political risks, the introduction of new production sharingcontracts and a revised hydrocarbon law are all likely to affect the country's business environment andinternational appetite for investment.

Table Of Contents

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Libya 2013-2018) 9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Libya 2019-2024) 9
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2013-2018) 17
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2019-2024) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2013-2018) 21
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2019-2024) 21
Refining 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2013-2018) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2019-2024) 24
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2013-2018) 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2019-2024) 27
Gas Consumption 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2013-2018) 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2019-2024) 30
Trade - Oil 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018) 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018) 37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Libya 2013-2018) 39
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Libya 2019-2024) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024) 41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 44
Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: BMI's Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 47
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 50
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Libya - Risk/Reward Index 52
Libya Upstream Overview 52
Libya Upstream Rewards 52
Libya Upstream Risk 52
Libya Downstream Overview 53
Market Overview 54
Libya Energy Market Overview 54
Overview/State Role 54
Licensing And Regulation 54
Tax Law 55
Click here to enter text 55
Licensing Rounds 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 57
Oil Refineries 57
Table: Refineries In Libya 57
Oil Terminals 59
Oil Pipelines 60
LNG Terminals 60
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya 60
Gas Pipelines 61
Competitive Landscape 62
Competitive Landscape Summary 62
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil and Gas Sector 63
Table: Key Upstream Players 64
Company Profile 65
ConocoPhillips 65
Eni North Africa 69
Marathon Oil 74
National Oil Corporation (NOC) 77
OMV Of Libya 81
Repsol Libya 84
Total Libya 86
Other Summaries 88
Regional Overview 91
Africa Oil and Gas Regional Overview 91
Global Industry Overview 99
Global Energy Market Overview 99
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates and NGLs Production ('000b/d) 99
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 102
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 103
Appendix 105
Africa - Regional Appendix 105
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 105
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 106
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 106
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 108
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 109
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 110
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 111
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 111
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 112
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 113
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 114
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 115
Libya - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts 116
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018) 116
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024) 116
Libya - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts 117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Libya 2013-2018) 117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Libya 2019-2024) 118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Libya 2013-2018) 119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Libya 2019-2024) 120
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Libya 2019-2024) 122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Libya 2019-2024) 123
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts 124
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) 124
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) 125
Glossary 127
Table: Glossary Of Terms 127
Methodology 129
Industry Forecast Methodology 129
Source 131
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 131
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 133
Table: Weighting 134

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