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Canada Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 128 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Canada's economy is likely to have undergone a technical recession in the first half of 2015(defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth) as the repercussions from falling oil prices hit theresource industry, and leading indicators show that the manufacturing sector is struggling to regainstrength. Despite continued growth in private consumption, deteriorating labour market dynamics meanthis trend is likely to be unsustainable over the coming quarters. The food market is set to be anunderperformer in Canada over our forecast period, with stronger growth in drinks and mass groceryretail.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

- 2015 per capita food consumption growth = +1.5% y-o-y; forecast compound annual growth rate(CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +1.5%;
- 2015 alcoholic drink sales growth = +3.8% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +4.2%;
- 2015 soft drink sales growth = +4.2% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +4.1%;
- 2015 mass grocery retail sales growth = +3.6% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +3.5%.

Table Of Contents

Canada Food and Drink Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Food 9
Drink 11
Mass Grocery Retail 13
Industry Forecast 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Food 17
Food Consumption 17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Canada 2012-2019) 18
Confectionery 18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Canada 2012-2019) 19
Canned Food 19
Processed Fish 20
Frozen Fruit And Vegetables 20
Table: Frozen Fruit and Vegetables Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 21
Oils and Fats 21
Dairy 21
Drink 22
Alcoholic Drinks 22
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 23
Soft Drinks 24
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade (Canada 2014-2019) 25
Hot Drinks 25
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 25
Mass Grocery Retail 26
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 27
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, % 27
Trade 28
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data and Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 28
Macroeconomic Forecasts 29
Macroeconomic Forecast 29
Table: Canada Macroeconomic Forecasts 32
Table: Average Oil Price Forecasts (USD/bbl) 34
Table: Private Consumption Forecasts 37
Table: Government Consumption Forecasts 38
Table: Fixed Investment Forecasts 38
Table: Net Exports Forecasts 39
Market Overview 40
Food 40
Food Consumption 40
Food Processing 40
Confectionery 41
Dairy 42
Drink 44
Alcoholic Drinks 44
Soft Drinks 45
Hot Drinks 46
Mass Grocery Retail 47
Leading Players 47
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Canada 2006-2010) 48
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Canada 2006-2015) 49
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Canada 2006-2015) 49
Industry Trends And Developments 50
Food 50
Drink 61
Mass Grocery Retail 65
Competitive Landscape 70
Table: Key Players In Canada's Food Sector 70
Table: Key Players In Canada's Drinks Sector 71
Table: Key Players In Canada's Mass Grocery Retail Industry 72
Company Profile 73
Saputo 73
George Weston Ltd 76
Maple Leaf Foods 79
Corby Spirit And Wine Ltd 82
Cott Corp 84
Loblaw Companies Ltd 87
Metro Inc 90
Sobeys 93
Walmart 96
Global Industry Overview 99
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry 102
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios 110
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup 115
Demographic Forecast 117
Demographic Outlook 117
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Canada 1990-2025) 118
Table: Key Population Ratios (Canada 1990-2025) 118
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Canada 1990-2025) 119
Table: Population By Age Group (Canada 1990-2025) 119
Table: Population By Age Group % (Canada 1990-2025) 120
Glossary 122
Food and Drink 122
Mass Grocery Retail 122
Methodology 124
Industry Forecast Methodology 124
Sector-Specific Methodology 125
Sources 125
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 126
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 127
Table: Weighting 128

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