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Strategic Outlook of Global Hybridization Trends in Select Off-highway Commercial Vehicle Market

  • July 2013
  • 87 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 1544541

Summary

Table of Contents

Increased Demand Set to Drive Hybrid Powertrain Production to around 3 per cent of Market by 2018

This research service covers the global hybridization trends in select off-highway commercial vehicle markets. The demands for reduced emissions and less fuel consumption have led leading off-highway original equipment manufacturers and suppliers to develop a range of hybrid technologies that has enabled fuel savings of up to 50.0 percent as well as machinery with improved operability. An ongoing development in this market is broadening the range of applications and driving down costs to enable further penetration of the technologies. Hybrid powertrains will establish a premium market segment globally and provide opportunities for original equipment manufacturers, suppliers, and service providers.

Impact of Mega Trends on Off-highway Construction and Agricultural Vehicles Markets

Expansion of Industrial Agriculture to ROW
•More global large-scale farms as governments address food security concerns
•Large harvesters and combines see sales growth in developing nations for mono-culture farming.
• Engines with more horsepower (100'400 hp) to see increasing demand.

Growth Industries of the Future
•Government infrastructure investment expected to resurface roads and rebuild bridges.
•Agriculture: Population growth expected to result in increased food production especially from land sources, because fish and seafood stock are projected to decline.

Waste Diversion Programs
•Waste streams increasingly seen as potential new source of supply for metals, plastics, compost, and natural gas.
•This trend is expected to result in lower than projected demand for newly mined resources.

Smart and Eco Cities, Mass Transit Infrastructure
•Mass transit infrastructure expected to see high demand in the future. Specifically, high speed, light, and monorail, along with bus rapid transit systems, to see increased market adoption.
•Increased demand seen for specialised equipment.

Alternative Fuels
•With emissions regulations for diesel engines becoming more stringent, a few OEMs are seeing a resurgence in demand for gasoline, LPG, and CNG engines in smaller equipment.
•Demand for bio-diesel and ethanol expected to remain strong.

Decreased Demand for Construction Equipment in Developed Markets
•The construction market is mature, and has relatively fewer activities in progress.
•A transition to rebuilding and maintenance rather than infrastructure expansion is occurring, indicating a demand for smaller vehicles and equipment.

New Product Opportunity—hybrid Heavy Construction Equipment
•Heavy-use, high duty-cycle heavy equipment demonstrating business case for hybrid power trains allows for smaller internal combustion engines than are normally associated with this equipment.

Rightsizing and Downsizing
•Shift toward smaller engines expected, which provide the added benefit of offering greater visibility around equipment.
•Users are hobby farmers, small orchards, and vineyards using smaller tractors.

Growing Regulations
•Trends toward stricter and greater regulations for noise and emissions from urban construction vehicles; in turn, this trend is expected to drive demand for low hp equipment. e.g. Tier IVi/Stage III.

Key Findings

Rising fuel prices and increasingly stringent emissions legislation expected to propel hybrid powertrain production to Xunits by 2018.

Global Level
•Strengthening emission regulations globally and continued volatility in fuel prices are the key drivers for hybridization of off-highway equipment powertrains.
•Hybrid powertrains are expected to account for X% (X units) of global off-highway powertrain production in 2018.

Region Level
•Hybrid technology development is gaining focus in the regions of Europe, Asia and North America in that order.
•Asia is expected to emerge as the key market among these three regions with an estimated production of Xunits in 2018.

OEM and Technology Level
•Every major OEM in key markets is researching and developing hybrid powertrains. Frost & Sullivan expects key product launches in the short- to medium-term.
•An estimated potential to reduce fuel consumption by up to X%, these hybrid powertrains are expected to command a price premium of X% over equivalent conventional powertrain equipment.
•Developments in power electronics, in particular in the field of insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs), are expected to drive cost reduction of hybridization in the medium to long-term.
•Hybridization is an effective engine downsizing strategy; and hence Frost & Sullivan expects market opportunity in the below XkW (Xhp) power bandwidth. The emission requirements become less stringent below this point.
•Significant potential for application in urban environments since hybridization results in smaller and quieter engines.

Strategic Fact Sheet

The hybrid powertrain market is expected to account for X% of the global off-highway powertrain market by 2018. Revenue from components market is expected to reach $Xmillion by 2018.

•By 2018, hybrid powertrain is expected to reach X% of suitable applications or Xunits.
•Certain segments of the off-highway industry are particularly suitable for hybrid powertrain. Ex: excavators, wheel loaders, and forklifts.
•To drive widespread adoption of hybrid technology mild hybridization needs to be adopted, enabling machinery to be converted quickly and at a lower cost. Economies of scale are also possible with integrators developing flexible hybrid modules.

Key Questions this Study Will Answer

• What are the benefits, costs and implications of using hybrid powertrain in off-highway equipment?
• Which applications are the most suitable for, and stand to gain most from, hybridization of the powertrain?
• What are the current technologies being used, who are the key manufacturers and what products are being offered to the market?
• What opportunities are there in the hybrid powertrain market? Which of the market participants stand to benefit from the technology?
• Where are the key areas for development and what are the further efficiencies that may be gained?

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