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Japan Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 103 pages

BMI View: Japan's Q215 real GDP growth release was a mixed bag. In quarter-on-quarter terms theeconomy posted a large contraction of 1.6% in annualised, seasonally adjusted terms (q-o-q SAAR)dragged lower by weakness in private consumption and net exports. In year-on-year terms, though, theeconomy grew by 0.7% after four quarters of contraction. However, economically speaking, thedemographic situation facing Japan is atrocious. We believe that this factor alone will ensure the economyfails to grow above 1.0% per annum over the coming decade. Japan's population has been in decline since2004 and this is projected to intensify over the coming years. As a result, growth in the food, drink and massgrocery retail sectors will be minimal.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- Per capita food consumption (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +0.3%; CAGR to 2019: +0.5%.
- Alcoholic drinks value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +0.6%; CAGR to 2019: +0.9%.
- Soft drinks value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +3.8%; CAGR to 2019: +3.2%.
- Total mass grocery retail value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +0.4%; CAGR to 2019:+0.3%.

Table Of Contents

Japan Food and Drink Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Food 9
Drink 11
Mass Grocery Retail 13
Industry Forecast 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Food 17
Food Consumption 17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Japan 2012-2019) 18
Confectionery 18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Japan 2012-2019) 20
Meat 21
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Japan 2014-2019) 21
Drink 22
Alcoholic Drinks 22
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019) 23
Hot Drinks 24
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019) 24
Soft Drinks 25
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade (Japan 2014-2019) 26
Mass Grocery Retail 27
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019) 28
Trade 29
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data and Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019) 29
Macroeconomic Forecasts 30
Table: Economic Activity (Japan 2010-2019) 35
Industry Risk/Reward Index 36
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Asia Pacific Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Q415 37
Japan Risk/Reward Index 41
Market Overview 42
Food 42
Food Consumption 42
Confectionery 43
Frozen Food 43
Trade 43
Agriculture 44
Drink 44
Alcoholic Drinks 44
Hot Drinks 46
Soft Drinks 47
Mass Grocery Retail 48
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Japan 2006-2015) 51
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Japan 2006-2015) 51
Industry Trends And Developments 52
Food 52
Key Industry Trends And Developments 52
Drink 55
Key Industry Trends And Developments 55
Mass Grocery Retail 57
Key Industry Trends And Developments 57
Competitive Landscape 58
Table: Key Players In Japan's Food and Drink Sector 58
Table: Key Players In Japan's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 59
Company Profile 60
Ajinomoto 60
Asahi Breweries 63
Kirin 65
Seven and I Holdings 67
Lawson Inc 70
Walmart Seiyu 72
Global Industry Overview 74
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry 77
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios 85
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup 90
Demographic Forecast 92
Demographic Outlook 92
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025) 93
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025) 93
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025) 94
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025) 94
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025) 95
Glossary 97
Food and Drink 97
Mass Grocery Retail 97
Methodology 99
Industry Forecast Methodology 99
Sector-Specific Methodology 100
Sources 100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 101
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 102
Table: Weighting 103

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