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Australia Mining Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 115 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Gold, copper and bauxite will emerge as the Australian mining industry's production growthbright spots during 2016-2020. Iron ore and coal output growth will slow more markedly due to continuedprice weakness.Although Australia will remain one of the world's largest mineral producers, growth will slow across theboard due to continued mineral price weakness. The Australian mining sector will be particularly affectedby China's economic slowdown, as the country accounts for almost 80.0% of the country's iron ore exports.We expect Australia's mining industry value to fall to USD94bn in 2016, down from USD106bn in 2015.We forecast Australia's mining industry value growth to pick up hereafter, reaching USD112.6bn in 2020.The potential return of La Niña this year poses downside risks to coal and iron ore production forecasts.



Latest Developments & Structural Trends


- We forecast iron ore production in Australia to register average annual growth of 2.0% during 2016-2020compared to 10.7% during 2011-2015.This is due to mothballing of mines from junior miners as iron oreprices remain weak as we believe that majors will stick to their production growth targets to crowd outhigh cost producers. Beyond 2016, iron ore production will start to slow from 4.9% in 2016 to -1.3% in2020 on the back of low prices. We expect Australia to remain the top global producer of iron ore, withproduction increasing from 754 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 792mnt by 2020. Australia's share ofglobal output will average 25.5% during this period.

Table Of Contents

Australia Mining Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Australia Mining Industry Value 7
Table: Australia Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Bauxite: Amrun To Drive Growth 12
Latest Developments 12
Table: Australia - Bauxite Production Forecast 12
Table: Australia - Select Bauxite Projects 12
Structural Trends 14
Coal: Competition From South American Producers Ahead 17
Latest Developments 17
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020) 17
Table: Australia: Select Coal Projects 17
Structural Trends 19
Copper: Strong Growth Despite Weak Prices 26
Latest Developments 26
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020) 26
Table: Australia - Select Copper Projects 27
Structural Trends 28
Gold: Strong Growth Ahead 31
Latest Developments 31
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020) 31
Table: Australia - Largest Gold Mining Projects By Volume 31
Structural Trends 32
Iron Ore: No Long-Term Production Gains From Temporary Price Rally 34
Latest Developments 34
Table: Australia Iron Ore Production Forecast 34
Table: Australia - New Iron Ore Projects 35
Structural Trends 36
Lead: Dugald River To Drive Growth From 2018 41
Latest Developments 41
Table: Lead Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020) 41
Table: Australia Selected Lead Projects 41
Structural Trends 42
Nickel: Production To Slow 45
Latest Developments 45
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020) 45
Table: Australia - Select Nickel Projects 46
Structural Trends 46
Tin: Better Growth Ahead 49
Latest Developments 49
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020) 49
Table: Australia - Tin Mining Projects 50
Structural Trends 50
Zinc: Dugald River Only Bright Star 52
Latest Developments 52
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020) 52
Table: Australia Selected Zinc Projects 52
Structural Trends 53
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 55
Australia Risk/Reward Index 55
Rewards 55
Industry Rewards 55
Country Rewards 55
Risks 55
Industry Risks 55
Country Risks 56
Asia Risk/Reward Index 57
Key Takeaways 57
Latest Revisions 58
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 58
Regulatory Development 60
Key Regulation Facts 60
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 61
Table: Australia - Mineral Taxes 64
Commodities Forecast 65
Commodities Outlook 65
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 65
Competitive Landscape 67
Iron Ore Majors To Outperform 67
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Australia 68
Company Profile 71
Global Company Strategy - Rio Tinto 71
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 73
Company Analysis 73
Table: Select Companies - Key Data 77
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Projects 80
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 81
Global Company Strategy - Glencore 82
Table: Selected Commodities - Price Forecasts 84
Company Analysis 84
Table: Glencore - Key Projects 88
Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data 90
Global Company Strategy - MMG Limited - Q4 2016 91
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 93
Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data 97
BHP Billiton - Q4 2016 98
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 100
Latest Financial Results 102
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data 105
Regional Overview 106
Asia Overview 106
Slowing Iron Ore Production 106
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 107
China and India To Lead In Outbound Investment 108
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead 109
Chinese Coal and Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly 111
Methodology 112
Industry Forecast Methodology 112
Sources 113
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 114
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 115

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