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  4. > India Mining Report Q4 2016

India Mining Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: India's mining sector will experience solid growth, primarily boosted by the country's positivereforms and vast mineral reserves. Despite this, the sector will continue to face challenges due to thecountry's inadequate operating environment, mining royalties and low metals prices, which will preventIndia from reaching its full growth potential.Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- India will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years although the countrypossesses one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential. Weforecast India's coal output to grow from 753mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1,014mnt in 2020, postingaverage annual growth of 7.6% during 2016-2020, a sizeable acceleration from an average growth of4.5% annually during 2011-2015. This is because the Indian government has made great progress inimproving coal mine production and coal offtake in recent quarters.

- We forecast India's iron ore output to grow from 132.9mnt in 2016 to 164.4mnt in 2020. This representsan average annual growth of 5.0% during 2016-2020, higher than the average contraction of 9.1% y-o-yover 2011-2015, following mining bans in the three largest iron-ore producing states of Goa, Odisha andKarnataka, which have since been lifted. Although the passing of the Mines & Minerals Developmentand Regulation Act will support India's iron ore output growth, weak iron ore prices will limit the sectorgrowth outlook. We forecast iron ore prices to average USD48.0/tonne over 2016-2020, significantlylower than USD115.0/tonne during 2011-2015. This is due to oversupply from Australian miners andweakened Chinese demand for iron ore.

Table Of Contents

India Mining Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: India - Mining Industry Value Forecast 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
Industry Forecast 11
Bauxite: Government Support To Boost Growth 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2015-2020) 12
Table: India - Bauxite Projects 12
Structural Trends 12
Iron Ore: Mine Reopenings And Government Support To Boost Growth 16
Latest Developments 16
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2012-2020) 16
Table: India - Selected Iron Ore Projects 17
Structural Trends 18
Zinc: Strong Growth Ahead 22
Latest Developments 22
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2012-2020) 22
Table: India - Select Zinc Mining Projects 23
Structural Trends 23
Coal: State Monopoly To Roll On 27
Latest Developments 27
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2014-2020) 27
Table: India - Select Coal Mine Projects 27
Structural Trends 28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 37
Asia Risk/Reward Index 37
Key Takeaways 37
Latest Revisions 38
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 39
Risk/Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Industry Rewards 40
Country Rewards 40
Risks 40
Industry Risks 40
Country Risks 41
Regulatory Development 42
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 43
Commodities Forecast 47
Commodities Outlook 47
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 47
Competitive Landscape 49
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies 51
Company Profile 52
Coal India Ltd (CIL) 52
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data 55
Hindustan Copper 56
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data 58
Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data 62
Vedanta Resources - Q4 2016 63
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 65
Latest Financial Results 67
Company Strategy 68
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 70
Regional Overview 71
Asia Overview 71
Slowing Iron Ore Production 71
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 72
China and India To Lead In Outbound Investment 73
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead 74
Chinese Coal and Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly 76
Methodology 77
Industry Forecast Methodology 77
Sources 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 80

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