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  4. > Indonesia Mining Report Q4 2015

Indonesia Mining Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Indonesia's ban moderation will become increasingly likely as the country's slowing GDP growth will force the government to moderate over the coming quarters.


Latest Developments & Structural Trends
- With the boom years in commodity prices behind us, we believe more miners in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment over the coming quarters. In January 2014, the government implemented
the ban on unprocessed minerals, in order to stimulate smelter construction and increase mineral export value. The government has maintained its ban on ore exports given the steady pipeline of nickel smelters
coming online which will help soak up mine production capacity. For bauxite, we believe a potential moderation is still on the cards as GDP growth continues to slow (see 'Bauxite Ban Moderation Becoming More Likely' Jun 26 2015).The support of the courts in upholding the Mining Law passed in 2009 and the support of newly elected President Joko Widodo and the parliament lends further credence to our view that the ban on ore exports will stay put in the short run. The passing of government regulation 77 in October 2014 that gives foreign players higher foreign ownership for their upstream operations with domestic downstream processing capabilities also indicates that the government is sticking to their guns to encourage the development of the downstream sector.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Mining Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019) . 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends .. 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast .. 10
Bauxite: Growth To Recover Gradually . 10
Latest Developments . 10
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019) . 10
Structural Trends .. 10
Coal: Slow Growth In Years To Come 14
Latest developments .. 14
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019) 14
Structural Trends .. 14
Production Fall In 2015 .. 17
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects 17
Copper: Growth Cooling Down 21
Latest Developments . 21
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2014-2019) . 21
Structural Developments . 21
Grasberg To Drive Output Growth 23
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects . 23
Nickel: Production Making A Recovery .. 25
Latest Developments . 25
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019) 25
Structural Trends .. 25
Ban Moderation Unlikely . 25
Modest Price Growth 27
Table: Indonesia - Largest Nickel Projects . 28
Smelters Being Built . 28
Tin: Refined Export Control Will Limit Growth 30
Latest Developments . 30
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019) . 30
Structural Trends .. 30
Failure To Maintain Export Quota 31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 33
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index . 33
Rewards .. 33
Industry Rewards .. 33
Country Rewards .. 33
Risks . 34
Industry Risks . 34
Country Risks . 34
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value and Mineral Production Forecasts 35
Asia Risk/Reward Index . 35
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index . 39
Regulatory Development .. 40
Key Developments . 40
Ban Moderation On The Horizon .. 40
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities 41
The New 2009 Mining Law . 41
Commodities Forecast .. 44
Commodities Outlook . 44
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 44
Competitive Landscape . 45
Key Players 45
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia 46
Company Profile . 47
PT Antam .. 47
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data . 49
PT Bumi Resources . 50
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data 52
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) 53
Table: ITMG - Key Financial Data . 55
PT Timah .. 56
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data . 59
Global Company Strategy - Freeport-McMoRan - Q4 2015 .. 60
Company Strategy . 62
Latest Results . 63
Table: Freeport McMoRan Supply Chain Analysis 64
Financial Data .. 64
Table: Freeport-McMoRan - Key Financial Data 64
Address Details . 65
Regional Overview 66
Asia Mining: The Four Key Themes 66
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production . 66
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 67
Slowing Demand From China 68
Indonesian Ban To Remain In Place . 69
Global Industry Overview .. 71
Global Mining: 2015 Key Themes Revisited .. 71
Table: Key Mining Themes For 2015 . 71
Theme: Mining Capital Expenditure Will Continue To Decline .. 71
Theme: US Dollar Strength . 72
Iron Ore Consolidation and Majors Share To Increase 73
Asian Investment In Africa To Continue 74
2015's Standouts 75
Methodology . 77
Industry Forecast Methodology . 77
Sources 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 80

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