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  4. > South Africa Mining Report Q4 2015

South Africa Mining Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: South Africa's mining sector will face significant headwinds as the country's gold and platinumindustries will continue to struggle from labour unrest, price weakness and retrenchment. Growth in thecountry's coal and iron ore sectors will be modest, driven primarily by increasing domestic demand.

-South Africa, which is Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s largest coal producer, with a 94.6% share of regionalcoal production in 2015, will see modest growth over the coming years. We forecast South Africa's coalproduction to grow from 263 million tonnes (mnt) in 2015 to 279mnt in 2019. This would representaverage growth of 1.4% each year over 2015-2019, higher than the average 0.9% decline over2010-2014.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Mining Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: South Africa Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Coal: Modest Growth, Despite Headwinds 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (South Africa 2014-2019) 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: South Africa - Major Coal Projects and Expansions 16
Gold: Growth To Grind To A Halt 19
Latest Updates 19
Table: Gold Production Forecast (South Africa 2011-2019) 19
Structural Trends 21
Iron Ore: Weak Prices To Curb Growth 25
Latest Updates 25
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (South Africa 2014-2019) 25
Table: South Africa - Major New Iron Ore Projects and Expansions 26
Structural Trends 26
Platinum: Production Downturn Due To Rising Costs 28
Latest Updates 28
Table: South Africa - Platinum Mine Production and Growth (2014-2019) 28
Structural Trends 28
Palladium: Weak Pipeline And Unrest To Dent Growth 34
Latest Updates 34
Table: Palladium Production (South Africa 2013-2019) 34
Table: South Africa - Palladium Projects 34
Structural Trends 35
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
South Africa Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 37
Africa: Headwinds To Slow Growth 38
Key Takeaways: 38
Latest Revisions: 39
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 40
Regulatory Development 41
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 41
South Africa: Mining Unrest Crib Sheet 44
Core View 44
Latest Developments 45
Key Questions and Answers 46
Commodities Outlook 52
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 52
Competitive Landscape 53
Table: South Africa - Largest Mining Companies' Financial Data, 2014 54
Company Profile 55
Global Company Strategy - AngloGold Ashanti - Q4 2015 55
Overview 57
Strategy 57
Risks 58
Latest Results 59
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data 60
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q4 2015 61
Company Strategy 63
Latest Results 64
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 65
Global Company Strategy - Impala Platinum - Q4 2015 66
Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data 70
Regional Overview 71
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes 71
Key Themes 71
SSA Gold: Stagnation, But DRC To Shine Bright 71
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth 72
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth 73
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP 74
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Sources 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

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