Poland Real Estate Report Q4 2014

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

BMI View:
Steady macroeconomic growth has provided substantial growth and investment activity in the commercial real estate sector in 2014. This is likely to carry on in 2015 as wider economic growth picks up pace. These developments emphasise Poland's dominance as the most stable and commercially attractive market within Central and Eastern Europe. Through a focus on the principal cities of Warsaw, Krakow and the Tricity area, the Poland Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country. With the wider Polish economy remaining in steady growth, investment momentum in 2014 has spread through all three commercial real estate sub-sectors sector that we cover. The first half of 2014 saw approximately EUR1.4bn invested, up 30% uptick year-on-year.

Table Of Contents

Poland Real Estate Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT ..... 9
Political 11
Economic .... 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast .. 14
Office .. 15
Table: Forecast Office Rental Rates, 2014-2015 (USD per square metre per month) . . 15
Table: Short-Term Forecast Office Net Yields, 2014-2015 (%) . 16
Retail .. 16
Table: Forecast Retail Rental Rates, 2014-2015 (USD per sq m per month) . 16
Table: Short-Term Forecast Retail Net Yields, 2014-2015 (%) . 17
Industrial ... 17
Table: Forecast Industrial Rental Rates, 2014-2015 (USD per sq m per month) . 17
Table: Short-Term Forecast Industrial Net Yields, 2014-2015 (%) 18
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario .... 19
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Poland 2012-2017) . . 19
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Poland 2018-2023) . . 20
Macroeconomic Forecasts ..... 28
Economic Analysis .... 28
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown . 28
Risks To Outlook ..... 31
Table: Economic Activity (Poland 2009-2018) 32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 33
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings ... 33
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings . . 33
Poland - Risk/Reward Ratings .. 34
Rewards .... 34
Risks ... 34
Market Overview ... 35
Warsaw ..... 36
Krakow ..... 37
Tricity . 37
Office ... 37
Table: Historical Rental Rates, 2012-2014 (USD per square metre per month) . . 39
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2012-2014 (%) . . 40
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213 . . 40
Retail ... 41
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2012-2014 (%) . . 44
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213 . . 44
Industrial .... 44
Table: Historical Rental Rates, 2012-2014 (USD per square metre per month) . . 46
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2012-2014 (%) . . 47
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213 . . 47
Competitive Landscape .... 48
Office .. 49
Retail .. 49
Industrial ... 50
Company Profile .... 51
Budimex 51
Atlas Estates 54
Plaza Centers NV ..... 57
Demographic Forecast ..... 60
Demographic Outlook 60
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 61
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . 62
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 63
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 63
Methodology .... 64
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 64
Sources ..... 65
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 66
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators . 67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 68

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